000 AXNT20 KNHC 220409 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Nov 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 06N, between 20W and 41W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Florida Keys to 23N86W. Scattered weak convection is found within 150 nm north of the frontal boundary. A surface trough extends from 20N94W to 28N98W and a few showers are noted near the trough axis. The tight pressure gradient between the strong ridge to the north and lower pressures associated with these boundaries is maintaining fresh to strong NE-E winds over the majority of the Gulf. N-NW strong to near gale force winds are found in the SW Gulf waters, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Veracruz. Seas of 8 ft or greater prevail S of 28N and W of 86W, peaking near 11 ft in the offshore waters of Veracruz. Seas of 4-8 ft are found in the northern and eastern Gulf waters, N of 28N and E of 86W. For the forecast, The stationary front will dissipate overnight. Strong high pressure north of the front will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas into the middle of the week. Looking ahead, strong NW winds and building seas will follow another front expected to move into the northwest Gulf late Thu. Winds and seas will diminish through late Sat as the weakening front reaches the southeast Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends into the SW Caribbean near the coast of Costa Rica and Panama to a 1008 mb low near 10N77W. Scattered moderate convection is affecting the waters of the SW Caribbean Sea, primarily S of 14N and W of 77W. A few showers are also seen over the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh easterly trade winds are evident in the eastern, central and SW Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring in the NE Caribbean, offshore NW Colombia and the Windward Passage. Seas are 5-7 ft in these waters, with the highest seas to 8 ft occurring north of the Panama Canal near 11N79W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will continue to support fresh to occasionally strong trade winds across the central and northeast Caribbean into mid-week. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin by Thu, except for occasionally fresh E winds persisting south of Hispaniola. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel by late Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N56W to 29N68W, becoming a stationary front to the NW Bahamas and the Florida Keys. Scattered moderate convection is present near and to the north of the frontal boundary. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh to strong ENE winds north of the boundaries where seas are 7-10 ft. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the east of the Lesser Antilles, especially from 07N to 15N and between 46W and 57W. A 1031 mb high pressure system centered south of the Azores dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the broad ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is supporting fresh easterly winds across most of the central and eastern Atlantic. Seas are 8-10 ft within these waters. For the forecast, the cold front will weaken and drift north to along 31N by Tue evening before moving eastward again across the waters north of 28N through Thu. Looking ahead, another front will move south into the waters north of 28N late Fri, and then shift east of the area through Sat. $$ Flynn