000
AXNT20 KNHC 211735
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Nov 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coastal
plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W then continues to near 06N20W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 04N30W to 04.5N40W to 04.5N51W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-08N between 29W-40W. 
Similar convection is also noted from 07N-10N between 48W-53W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Winds have diminished below gale force across the Gulf region, 
and the Gale Warning was allowed to expire. A stationary front 
remains across the Straits of Florida and extends to near 24N86W. 
This front continues to produce numerous showers over South 
Florida and the upper Florida Keys. In the last 24 hours, South 
Florida has received 3-5 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of 
6 inches causing urban flooding. An area of showers with isolated
thunderstorms is also near the western end of the front over the
SE Gulf. Abundant cloudiness with possible showers dominates the 
remainder of the Gulf waters. A surface trough is analyzed from 
24N88W into the Yucatan Peninsula to near 20N89W. The remainder of
the Gulf waters is under the influence of ridge anchored by a 
1035 mb high pressure located over the middle Atlantic states. 
Another 1029 mb high pressure is over northern Coahuila, Mexico 
extending a ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 
Mountains and the western Gulf. The pressure gradient between high
pressure and the front/trough continues to support strong to 
near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas off the coast 
of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz. Strong winds and rough seas 
also persist elsewhere across the Gulf south of 27N. Seas are 12 
to 15 ft across most of the waters S of 26N based on a couple of 
altimeter passes, and 8 to 12 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish through mid week 
across the Gulf as high pressure north of the area following the 
front weakens and shifts eastward. Looking ahead, another cold 
front may move into the northwest Gulf Thu afternoon and sweep 
southeast of the Gulf by Fri night. Model guidance suggest that
the front and associated moisture will lift northward across
Florida with improving weather conditions over South Florida on
Tue.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern portion of the east Pacific monsoon trough continues
to generated scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over
the SW Caribbean, particularly S of a line from 13N83w to 10N76W.
This convective activity is affecting parts of Panama, Costa Rica
and the Caribbean plains of Nicaragua. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are also over the Gulf of Honduras. Surface
observations reveal the presence of a well defined surface trough
over the eastern Caribbean near 62W. Some shower activity is near
the trough axis, and also just E of the Lesser Antilles. This 
trough could be a surface reflexion of an upper-level low spinning
E of the Windward Islands near 12N58W. Elsewhere, shallow moisture
embedded in the trade wind flow is moving westward across the 
region producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

Satellite derived wind data provide observations of moderate to 
fresh trades across much the basin, with the exception of fresh to
locally strong NE winds just S of Dominican Republic.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will 
continue to support fresh to occasionally strong trade winds 
across the central and northeast Caribbean into mid week. Winds 
and seas will diminish across the basin by Thu, except for 
occasionally fresh E winds persisting south of Hispaniola. Looking
ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Fri 
night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N62W to the Florida Straits. A
wide band of multilayer clouds with showers is associated with the
front. Fresh to strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are in the 
wake of the front, highest just N of the NW Bahamas and in the 
Gulfstream. E of the front, a 1034 mb high pressure located W of
the Madeira Islands near 33N25W dominates the remainder of the
Atlantic forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the high
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough 
supports fresh to locally strong trades across the tropical 
Atlantic. Seas are 8-10 ft within these wind speeds. 

For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken and drift 
north to along 31N by Tue evening before dragging southeast again 
across the waters north of 28N through Wed night, then dissipating
by Thu. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front may move off 
northeast Florida coast late Fri.

$$
GR