000 AXNT20 KNHC 210916 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Nov 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida to 1014 mb low pressure near 24N88W. A persistent surface trough extends from Brownsville, Texas south- southeast to the Bay of Campeche. The pressure gradient between these features and high pressure over the southern United States continues to support gale force winds near the low as well as offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Seas have subsided slightly from their peak, but still are up to 16 to 17 ft. The front and low will weaken later this morning allowing for winds to diminish below gale force by sunrise. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Africa to the Atlantic Ocean near the border of Guinea and Sierra Leone at 09N14W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 05N30W to 06N47W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 29W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about the ongoing Gale Warning. A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida to 1014 MB low pres near 24N88W. A surface trough extends from near Brownsville, Texas to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted east of 86W near the stationary front. Fresh to strong NW winds and 7 to 14 ft seas prevail elsewhere west of the surface trough. Fresh to strong NE winds dominate east of the trough and outside the gale area, along with 7 to 14 ft seas in NE to E swell in the offshore waters. Seas are 3 to 6 ft from the offshore waters boundary to the coast. For the forecast, the low will weaken to a trough while the front weakens while drifting northwest. Associated gales will diminish by sunrise this morning. Conditions will then improve modestly through tonight, and more significantly Tue through Wed. The next cold front may move across the entire basin Thu through Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean to across portions of Panama and across Caribbean coastal sections of northern Colombia. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted across the SW Caribbean southwest of a line from 15N83W to 11N75W. Isolated showers are in the far eastern Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, the weather is fairly quiet early this morning. Fresh to strong trades are in the central Caribbean due to a locally tight pressure gradient between the monsoon trough and high pressure north of the basin. Seas are 7 to 9 ft there. Moderate to fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are in the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail across the western Caribbean, except to 7 ft in the Yucatan Channel due to NE swell from the Gulf of Mexico. For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will continue to support fresh trade winds across the E Caribbean and fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through this morning. NE winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Windward Passage through Tue night. Increasing winds and seas will arrive from the east across the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Wed, and spread across the NE Caribbean, including Atlantic Passages, this afternoon through Wed, as a broad trough moves westward across the region. Conditions will improve slightly Thu as the pressure gradient weakens. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N65W to 28N73W continuing as stationary through the Central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong NE winds and 6 to 10 ft seas are west of the boundary, highest northeast of the Bahamas and in the Gulfstream. A ridge extends from the Azores high through 31N50W to 28N70W east of the front. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are under the ridge. Mainly moderate trades and 5 to 8 ft in easterly swell are elsewhere north of 20N and west of 55W. A pair of surface troughs are in the open Atlantic, one along 60W south of 23N, and the other from 18N48W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is between the troughs from 12N to 19N. The pressure gradient between the Azores high and these troughs is supporting a large area of fresh to strong winds across the waters southeast of the Azores ridge and north of 07N, with seas of 7 to 11 ft. For the forecast, the front in the SW N Atlantic will weaken while stalling today and tonight, and eventually drift north to along 31N by Tue evening before dragging southeast again across the waters north of 28N through Wed night, then dissipate by Thu. A stronger and more progressive cold front may move across the region by the end of the week into the following weekend. $$ Lewitsky