526 AXNT20 KNHC 210545 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Nov 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A stationary front passes through the NW Bahamas, to the Florida Keys, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 24N88W. A cold front is about 90 nm to the north and northwest of the stationary front, from 84W in the Gulf of Mexico eastward. A surface trough extends from the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N88W, to 21N94W, to 27N98W in the coastal plains of the Deep South of Texas. Strong high pressure, that has been building behind the front, supports strong to gale-force winds to the north and to the west of the front and the 1014 mb low pressure center. Large seas reaching to 20 feet accompany these winds throughout the basin. The low pressure center is forecast to weaken to a surface trough, while the front will remain stalled in the southern waters through Monday. The associated gale-force winds will be diminishing by early Monday. The conditions will improve modestly on Monday, and then more significantly from Tuesday through Wednesday. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W, to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W, to 05N30W 06N40W 07N47W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 180 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 36W and 43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 39W and 44W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 13N southward from 48W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 13N56W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N southward between 48W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the ongoing Gale-Force Wind Warning for the Gulf of Mexico, that includes sea heights that range from 12 feet to 20 feet in NE swell. The comparatively highest sea heights will be reaching 20 feet in the SW corner, and near 18 feet in the east central sections. A stationary front passes through the NW Bahamas, to the Florida Keys, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 24N88W. A cold front is about 90 nm to the north and northwest of the stationary front, from 84W in the Gulf of Mexico eastward. A surface trough extends from the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N88W, to 21N94W, to 27N98W in the coastal plains of the Deep South of Texas. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is between NW Cuba and the stationary front between 81W and 86W. Rainshowers are possible in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front extends from the Florida Keys to to 1014 MB low pres near 24N88W. A cold front is to the north across Lake Okeechobee, Florida to offshore Naples. A surface trough extends from near Brownsville, Texas to the eastern Bay of Campeche. These features are combining with strong high pressure north of the area to support strong to gale force winds north of between the stationary front and cold front, as well as offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Very large seas to around 20 ft accompany the gale force winds. The low will weaken to a trough while the front stalls across the southern waters through Mon, with associated gales diminishing by early Mon. Conditions will improve modestly through Mon night and then more significantly Tue through Wed. The next cold front will move across the entire basin Thu through Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough passes through the NW coastal sections of Venezuela, to the coastal plains of Colombia, southwestward, through the border of Panama and Colombia, parallel to the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, and beyond 08N90W, into the tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 10N to 13N between 78W and 83W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 14N southward from 75W westward. Broad surface low pressure, and isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation, are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 15N northward from 80W westward. The surface pressure gradient in the NW Caribbean Sea remains weak. The wind speeds are gentle to moderate, and the sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet. A strong ridge in the central Atlantic Ocean, and building surface high pressure behind two fronts that are affecting the northern Bahamas, are maintaining fresh winds in the E Caribbean Sea, and fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet in the central sections, and into the SW corner. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the eastern sections. The pressure gradient across the region will continue to support fresh trade winds across the E Caribbean Sea, and fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean Sea through early Mon. NE winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Windward Passage through Tue night. Increasing winds and seas will arrive from the east across the Tropical N Atlantic waters tonight through Wed, and spread across the NE Caribbean, including Atlantic Passages, Mon afternoon through Wed, as a broad trough moves westward across the region. Conditions will improve slightly Thu as the pressure gradient weakens. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is along 31N67W, to the NW Bahamas, beyond the Florida Keys, and into the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is about 90 nm to the north and northwest of the stationary front, from 84W in the Gulf of Mexico eastward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are from the stationary front northward and northwestward. Fresh to strong NE winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 8 feet, are behind these two frontal boundaries. Expect fresh winds, and sea heights that range from 7 feet to 8 feet, are from the stationary front eastward, and from 24N southward. Locally strong winds are just to the north of Hispaniola. The remaining central and eastern subtropical Atlantic Ocean areas are under the influence of the Azores 1033 mb high pressure center, that is continuing to support mainly fresh to locally strong winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 10 feet. A stationary front extends from 31N68W to the NW Bahamas to the Florida Keys and will drift N tonight and Mon. A cold front from 31N73W to Lake Okeechobee, Florida will move southeast and merge with the old front Mon, then will stall by Mon evening. This boundary will then weaken and drift north to along 31N by Tue evening before dragging southeast again across the waters north of 28N through Wed night, then dissipate by Thu. A stronger and more progressive cold front may move across the region by the end of the week into the following weekend. $$ mt/jl