000 AXNT20 KNHC 201800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Nov 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1755 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from the FLorida Keys to a 1013 mb low pressure near 24N92W with a cold front extending from the low to the coast of Campeche near 19N91W. These features are combining with high pressure north of the area to support strong to gale force winds north and west of the fronts as captured by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Very large seas to around 20 ft accompany these winds. A buoy near 26N93W recently reported wave heights of 16 ft. The low will weaken to a trough while the front stalls across the southern waters through Mon, with associated gales diminishing by early Mon. Conditions will improve modestly on Mon and then more significantly Tue through Wed. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough continues mostly confined to the African continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N13W to 08N19W. The ITCZ extends from 08N19W to 06N33W to 06N45W. A surface trough is located west of the ITCZ, from 12N46W to 03N47W. Weak showers are noted within 60 nm on both sides of the ITCZ between 23W and 32W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 15N and between 40W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about an ongoing Gale Warning. A stationary front extends from the Florida Keys to a 1013 mb low pressure near 24N92W and a cold front extends from the low pressure to the coast of Campeche near 19N91W. Divergence aloft and tropical moisture surging northward result scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from the NW coast of Cuba to the northern Gulf coast, mainly E of 90W. Outside of the pressure gradient north and west of the low pressure and frontal boundary, gentle to locally fresh winds and seas of 4-8 ft prevail S of 24N and E of 91W. For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure and frontal boundaries are combining with strong high pressure north of the area to support strong to gale force winds north and west of the fronts. Very large seas to around 20 ft accompany these winds. The low will weaken to a trough while the front stalls across the southern waters through Mon, with associated gales diminishing by early Mon. Conditions will improve modestly on Mon and then more significantly Tue through Wed. The next cold front will move across the basin Thu through the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues to affect the SW Caribbean Sea, mainly S of 14N and W of 76W. A few showers are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras and off the western tip of Cuba. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil weather conditions are seen on satellite imagery. A recent scatterometer satellite imagery show fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central and SW Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are evident in the eastern Caribbean. In the remainder of the basin, gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will continue to support fresh trade winds across the E Caribbean and fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through early Mon. NE winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Windward Passage through Tue night. Increasing winds and seas will impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters tonight through Wed, and spread across the NE Caribbean, including Atlantic Passages, Mon afternoon through Wed as a broad trough moves westward across the region. Conditions will improve slightly Thu as the pressure gradient weakens. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front meanders from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and SE Florida. Overcast skies and some light precipitation is evident on satellite imagery near and behind the frontal boundary. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are noted behind the front, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Fairly tranquil conditions are observed ahead of the frontal in the rest of the western tropical Atlantic, W of 55W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft prevail S of 25N and between the central Bahamas and 55W. Elsewhere N of 25N and W of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate slight to moderate seas are prevalent. A surface trough extends from 22N to 13N along 55W and it is interacting with a broad upper level low, resulting in scattered moderate convection from 12N to 21N and east of the trough to 50W. The rest of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic is dominated by a strong 1033 mb high pressure system south of the Azores. Recent scatterometer satellite data indicate that fresh to strong easterly winds are present S of 28N and between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, with the strongest winds occurring S of 18N and between 45W and 55W. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the area of the strongest winds. Fresh to strong easterly winds are also noted S of 31N and E of 30N, with the strongest winds affecting the waters off Morocco. Seas in the mentioned waters are 6-12 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front has begun to drift northward. A cold front will enter the waters off NE Florida today, and move southeast while merging with the old front, then will stall from south of Bermuda to extreme S Florida Mon. This boundary will then weaken and drift north to along 31N by Tue evening before dragging SE again across the waters N of 28N through Wed night, dissipating by Thu. $$ DELGADO