000 AXNT20 KNHC 200906 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Nov 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near 24N81W to 1014 mb low pressure near 25N93W with a cold front extending from the low to the SW Gulf near 18N95.5W. These features are combining with high pressure north of the area to support strong to strong gale force winds north and west of the fronts as clearly indicated by overnight ASCAT scatterometer data. Very large seas to around 20 ft are with these winds, with a maximum of 23 ft reported at NDBC buoy 42002 earlier. The gale force winds will shift slightly east and south today, then will diminish late tonight as the fronts and pressure gradient weaken, with the low dissipating. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient exists between a strong 1032 mb Azores high and comparatively lower surface pressures in NW Africa are supporting gale force winds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zone. This winds are forecast to continue to 20/12 UTC with severe gusts and large seas up to around 14 ft during the gale force winds. Please read the High Seas Warning and Forecast issued by Meteo-France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 05N25W to 05N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N east of 18W, and from 01N to 02N between 32W and 38W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about an ongoing Gale Warning. A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near 24N81W to 1014 mb low pressure near 25N93W with a cold front extending from the low to the SW Gulf near 18N95.5W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring within 120 nm of the low, and from 21N to 26N between 85W and 91W, including just north of the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are also occurring north of 26N between 84W and 94W. South of the front in the south-central and southeast Gulf, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail, with an area of light and variable winds and 3 to 6 ft seas ahead of the cold front to around 90W. For the forecast, the low will weaken to a trough while the front stalls across the southern waters through Mon, with associated gales diminishing by early Mon. Conditions will improve modestly on Mon and then more significantly Tue through Wed. The next cold front may move across the basin Thu through the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the SW Caribbean south of 14N and west of 76W with the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough located to the south across Panama and northern Colombia. Some isolated to widely scattered showers are noted across the central and eastern Caribbean in the trade wind flow. Fresh to strong trades and 7 to 9 ft seas are in the central Caribbean due to a regionally tight pressure gradient, with moderate to fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas in the eastern Caribbean. Mainly gentle to moderate trades and 3 to 5 ft seas are in the NW Caribbean, and in the SW Caribbean south of 10N. For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will continue to support fresh trade winds across the E Caribbean and fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through early Mon. NE winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Windward Passage through Tue night. Increasing winds and seas will impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters Sun night through Wed, and spread across the NE Caribbean, including Atlantic Passages, Mon afternoon through Wed as a broad trough moves westward across the region. Conditions will improve slightly Thu as the pressure gradient weakens. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about a Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic within the Meteo-France High Seas area. A stationary front from just south of Bermuda across the Central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida is weakening and beginning to drift north. A trough is noted from 31N74.5W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas to 5 ft are west of the trough. A ridge extends from 31N60W to 26N72W with gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas under it. Moderate to fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are elsewhere west of 57W. A pair of surface troughs is analyzed in the central Atlantic, one from 31N48W to 20N53W to 10N54W, and the other from 16N45W to 02N45W. Plentiful scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 22N between 40W and 53W. A tight pressure gradient is present between these features and the Azores high north of the area. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong trades east of the western trough with seas of 7 to 11 ft. For the forecast, a cold front will enter the waters off NE Florida today, and move southeast while merging with the old stationary front, then will stall from south of Bermuda to extreme S Florida Mon. This boundary will then weaken and drift north to along 31N by Tue evening before dragging SE again across the waters N of 28N through Wed night, dissipating by Thu. $$ Lewitsky