000 AXNT20 KNHC 181724 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Nov 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France is forecasting near-gale to gale winds in the AGADIR and TARFAYA Marine Zones as strong high pressure builds behind an approaching cold front. Gales are forecast to begin by 18/18Z in Agadir and by 18/21Z in Tarfaya, to at least 19/12Z in both zones. Seas will range 10-14 ft in the highest winds, with a NW to N swell direction. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website: http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Low pressure in the SW Gulf of Mexico is expected to drift north through the weekend. The gradient between this low pressure and high pressure across the south- central U.S. will produce strong to gale force winds across much of the Gulf of Mexico beginning 20/2100 UTC. Seas will build to 12-16 ft in highest winds. Conditions should gradually improve early next week. For more information, please see the Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php and the High Seas Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 07N33W and continues west of a surface trough from 07N37W to 08N52W. The surface trough is from 05N35W to 11N35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted on either side of the ITCZ between 01N and 12N from 15W to 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a new GALE WARNING for gale force winds beginning 20/2100 UTC. At 1500 UTC, a stationary front extends from just south of the Yucatan Channel across the northern Yucatan Peninsula to 1017 mb low pressure in the SW Gulf near 21N93W. A trough extends from the low to the Mexico-Texas border. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted east of the trough to 90W and north of the frontal boundary to 23N. Fresh to strong NW winds exist west of 93W and south of 23N to the coast of Mexico, while fresh to strong NE winds are present across the Gulf waters from 22N to 26N, including the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 8-14 ft within these areas of fresh to strong winds, with peak seas near 23N94W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh N-NE winds are present along with 4-7 ft seas, except 2-4 ft in the far NE Gulf coastal waters. For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken to a shearline this evening. Strong winds prevail N of the front to 26N and W of 87W, where seas remain in excess of 12 ft, while strong winds persist across the far SW Gulf from 18N to 24N. The low will drift N over the weekend. The gradient between this low pres and high pres across the south-central U.S. will produce strong to gale force winds across much of the Gulf of Mexico late Sat through Sun night. Conditions should gradually improve early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from western Cuba across Isla de la Juventud to north of Cozumel, Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are north of the boundary, including within the Yucatan Channel, with seas of 6-9 ft in N swell spilling through from the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed along the coast of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection, associated with the trough and the stationary front, is in the NW Caribbean from the coast of Honduras north to 21N between 82W and 87W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough along with 1009 mb low near central Panama are triggering scattered moderate convection in the SW Gulf, from 11N to 13N between 76W and 84W. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the remainder of the basin. Seas are 5-7 ft locally 8 ft in the central Caribbean, 3-5 ft between Cuba and Jamaica, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will support moderate to fresh trade winds during the next several days, pulsing to strong in the central Caribbean this weekend. The stationary front across the Yucatan Channel will gradually dissipate through Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail across the Yucatan Channel through early Sat, while seas build across the far NW Caribbean through Fri night. Increasing winds and seas will impact the Tropical N Atlantic waters Sun night through Mon, and NE Caribbean, including Atlantic Passages, Mon afternoon through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on an East Atlantic Gale Warning. A stationary front extends from just SE of Bermuda to across the Central Bahamas to N central Cuba along 80W. Scattered showers are noted within 50 nm on either side of the front between 70W and 75W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas are west of the front, except locally fresh from the central Bahamas through the Straits of Florida. Light to gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas are elsewhere north of 26N and west of 55W, under a ridge extending from a 1032 mb Azores High north of the area. Moderate to fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas are south of 26N and west of 55W. A weak trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from 31N44W to 22N44W. Scattered showers are noted in the central tropical Atlantic from 13N to 19N between 33W and 41W. The Azores high is supporting moderate to fresh trades east of 40W, with mainly moderate trades between 40W and 55W. Seas are 8-10 ft in N swell north of 18N east of 40W. Elsewhere in open waters seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, Fresh NE winds will prevail from the western Bahamas through the Straits of Florida through tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Over the weekend, another cold front will enter the waters east of Florida, bringing fresh to strong N to NE winds behind it. The front may stall out across the central portion early next week, eventually retreating northward. $$ Nepaul/Mahoney