000 AXNT20 KNHC 180555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Nov 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A surface ridge extends southward from a strong 1028 mb high over southern Texas along the east coast of Mexico. Meanwhile, a 1017 mb low has formed northeast of Vera Cruz near 21N95W. Tight gradient between these two features will sustain strong to gale northerly winds across the western Bay of Campeche through early Fri morning. Seas are peaking at 12 to 15 ft at the western Bay of Campeche, and 10 to 13 ft at the west-central Gulf. Both winds and seas should gradually decrease late Fri morning. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. GALE WINDS AT AGADIR MARINE ZONE... Meteo-France is forecasting near-gale to gale winds near Madeira Island in the east-central Atlantic by 18/18Z. Refer to website: http://gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.2105. 172105434491.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough remains over the African continent based on the latest analysis. An ITCZ extends west-northwestward from west of southern Liberia at 04N15W across 08N35W to north of French Guiana at 09N52W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted up to 200 nm along either side of the ITCZ between 18W and 40W. Scattered showers are seen up to 120 nm along either side of the rest of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough along with an embedded 1008 mb low near central Panama are triggering scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms near the coast of Panama and northwestern Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning. A cold front extends west-southwestward from the Florida Straits across northwestern Cuba and the Yucatan Channel/Peninsula, then continues westward as a stationary front over the eastern Bay of Campeche to a 1017 mb low near 21N95W. Widely scattered showers are occurring up to 50 nm along either side of the cold front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near and up to 80 nm north of the stationary front, and near the low. Interaction between cold, denser air from the Gulf States and warmer, moist air in the Gulf is creating extensive mid to high- level cloudiness over the northern Gulf. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 4 to 8 ft are present across the northwestern, north-central and central Gulf. Moderate NNE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are found at the northeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft exist at the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds with 8 to 11 ft seas are evident at the south-central Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail at the eastern Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the cold front will stall across the Yucatan Channel this evening. The stationary front will become a sharp surface trough connected to the low on Fri. Gale-force NW winds will continue within about 120 nm of the Mexican coast near Veracruz through tonight while strong winds prevail elsewhere over the southwestern Gulf, and fresh to strong in the central Gulf. The surface trough will extend from the southwestern Gulf to the northwestern Gulf over the weekend while low pres lingers along it. The gradient between this low pres and high pres across the south-central U.S. will produce strong to gale force winds again across much of the Gulf of Mexico late Sat through Sun night. Conditions should gradually improve early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northwestern and west-central basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Another surface trough is causing isolated thunderstorms near Haiti. Otherwise, a NE to ENE trade- wind regime continues for most of the basin. Moderate with locally fresh ENE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are seen for the eastern and central basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are present at the northwestern basin. Moderate ENE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found at the west-central basin. Gentle to moderate monsoonal winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail near Panama. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the southwestern Caribbean will support moderate to fresh trade winds during the next several days, pulsing to strong in the central Caribbean this weekend. A cold front near the Yucatan Channel will stall through Fri. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail behind the front across the Yucatan Channel through early Sat, while seas build across the far northwestern Caribbean through Fri night. Increasing winds and seas may impact the northeastern Caribbean including Atlantic Passages early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for details on gales being forecast by Meteo-France in the north-central Atlantic. A cold front stretches southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N67W and the central Bahamas through western Cuba. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near and up to 100 nm southeast of the front. A robust upper-level trough reaches northeastward from a low near 23N50W to beyond 31N at 41W. Scattered moderate convection are flaring up just east of the features from 17N to 22N between 45W and 51W, and north of 22N between 33W and 41W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A 1030 mb Azores High is sustaining gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft in moderate northerly swell north of 20N between the northwestern African coast and 55W. To the west, light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted north of 20N between 55W and the cold front. Behind the cold front, gentle to moderate N to ENE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident. Farther southeast, gentle to moderate NNE to ENE trades and seas of 6 to 7 ft exist from 08N to 20N between the central African coast and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast, the cold front will move southeastward and stall from near Bermuda to the northwest Bahamas to northwestern Cuba later tonight. Fresh N winds will blow from the western Bahamas across the Straits of Florida through the end of the week. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Over the weekend, another cold front will enter the waters east of Florida, bringing fresh to strong N to NE winds behind it. The front may stall from just south of Bermuda to the northwestern Bahamas early next week, eventually retreating northward. $$ Chan