000 AXNT20 KNHC 172225 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Nov 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front that earlier moved through the SW Gulf of Mexico has induced gales offshore Veracruz, Mexico. These gales will continue into tonight has high pressure centered in Texas spills southward down the Mexican coast. Seas of 12 to 14 ft can be expected. Conditions will improve Fri as the front and high pressure weaken and move E of the area. Low pressure is forecast to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend, which may bring new gales to much of the western Gulf late Sat through Sun night. Strong to near gale force winds are also possible in the eastern Gulf during this time. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. Meteo-France is forecasting near gale to gale force winds in Agadir and Tarfaya marine zones in the NE Atlantic over the next 24 hours. For details, refer to http://weather.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.09 17.1709172829475.html . ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from 08N19W to 07N28W to 08N50W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 28W and 37W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for details on gales in the SW Gulf of Mexico into Fri. A cold front has moved SE of the basin today. In its wake, a large area of strong NE winds encompass the central and west-central Gulf of Mexico. The remainder of the basin generally has fresh NE winds, although winds have diminished to moderate near the northern Gulf coast of the United States, as well as in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas in the west central Gulf range from 8 to 12 ft, with generally 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. As with the winds, seas are lower near the northern Gulf coast of the U.S., averaging 3 to 5 ft. Significant moisture overrunning the colder air closer to the water brought in by the cold front is leading to scattered moderate convection over a broad area of the Central Gulf. For the forecast, strong winds will prevail over the SW Gulf tonight. A surface trough will extend from the SW Gulf to the NW Gulf over the weekend while low pressure may form along the trough. The gradient between this low and high pressure across the south- central U.S. will produce strong to gale force winds across much of the Gulf of Mexico late Sat through Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh NE to E trades dominate the basin. Locally strong winds exist in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Venezuela. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 8 feet in the central Caribbean Sea, from 4 feet to 6 feet in the eastern part of the basin, and from 3 feet to 5 feet in the NW Caribbean Sea. A surface trough extends from just SW of Jamaica, northward across eastern Cuba, and into the SW Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is noted on the SW edge of this trough, in a zone from 14N to 19N between 78W and 82W. To the south of this area of convection, the eastern extension of the east Pacific monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica to Colombia along 10N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in association with this trough dominates areas S of 11N. A cold front has entered the Yucatan Channel this afternoon, but currently is not inducing any convection in the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will support moderate to fresh trade winds during the next several days. A cold front over the SE Gulf of Mexico is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel this evening, then stall through Fri. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail behind the front across the Yucatan Channel, while seas build across the far NW Caribbean through Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for details on gales being forecast by Meteo-France in the NE Atlantic. A cold front extends from just W of Bermuda, through the NW Bahamas, and into western Cuba. To the SE, a surface trough extends from 26N70W, through the SE Bahamas, and into eastern Cuba. No significant convection is occurring with either of this features. Winds behind the front are moderate to fresh out of the NE, with winds ahead of it light to gentle, to the N of 24N and W of 50W. To the S and E of this area of lesser winds, moderate to fresh trades dominate. A relatively benign surface trough extends along 41W from 15N to 30N. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft across the basin. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and stall from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas to central Cuba tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Over the weekend, another cold front will enter the waters east of Florida, bringing fresh to strong N to NE winds behind it. $$ KONARIK