000 AXNT20 KNHC 170656 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Resent NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Nov 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A dominant 1033 mb high over Texas and Oklahoma will continue to channel northerly winds across the Gulf. Northerly winds at the offshore waters from near Tampico southward to the western Bay of Campeche, Mexico are expected to remain at near-gale to gale force through early Fri morning. Seas currently at 8 to 10 ft will build further and reach 11 to 15 ft Thu evening. Please read the high seas forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough remains over the African continent based on the latest analysis. An ITCZ extends westward from west of the Sierra Leone coast at 07N16W to 08N31W, then from 06N37W across 06N45W to north of French Guiana at 10N52W. Scattered moderate convection is found up to 180 nm along either side of the first ITCZ segment, and up to 100 nm north and 60 nm south of the second segment. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough along with an embedded 1008 mb low near over central Panama are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms near Panama and northwestern Colombia, and adjacent Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above on a Gale Warning. A cold front stretches southwestward from near Naples, Florida, passing near the Yucatan north coast to the central Bay of Campeche, then curves southward as a stationary front to near Villahermosa, Mexico. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 140 nm north of the boundary. Outside the Gale Warning area and behind the cold front, moderate to fresh NNE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present at the northeastern Gulf. Fresh to strong NE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are seen across the northwestern and north-central Gulf. South of the cold front, gentle to moderate ENE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are found in the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel. East of the stationary front, gentle to moderate with locally fresh northerly winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail at the central and eastern Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the cold front will move further southeastward and extend across the far southeastern Gulf on Thu morning, then over western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula by Thu evening. Strong to gale force northerly winds prevail within 120 nm of the Mexican coast to the W of the front. Strong high pressure building over Texas will further tighten the pressure gradient across the Gulf through Fri. As a result, expect strong to gale winds and rough seas across most of the basin, through early Fri. A trough is forecast to develop over the western Gulf during the upcoming weekend. This pattern could spread gale conditions across much of the western Gulf, and strong to near gale winds over the eastern and south-central Gulf Sat evening through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms near southeastern Cuba, Jamaica and the Windward Passage. Convergent trades are causing similar weather at the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, the Atlantic Ridge continues to sustain a NE to ENE trade-wind regime across most of the basin. Fresh to locally strong trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are found at the central basin. Moderate to fresh trades with 3 to 5 ft seas exist at the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are evident north of Panama. Gentle to moderate trades and seas at 3 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the southwestern Caribbean will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds during the next several days. Fresh to locally strong NE winds will pulse off Colombia tonight and again Sat night. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel late Thu, and stall across the northwestern Caribbean Fri. Strong NE winds will prevail behind the front across the Yucatan Channel, while seas build across the far northwestern basin through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front reaches southwestward from off the Carolina coast across 31N77W to near Melbourne, Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near and up to 50 nm northwest of the front. The southern end of a mid-latitude trough over the north-central Atlantic is producing scattered moderate convection from 19N to 30N between 35W and 51W. Two surface troughs are causing similar conditions in the Tropical Atlantic from 08N to 13N between 52W and 57W, and from 05N to 11N between 31W and 36W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. The ridge associated with the 1023 mb high near 32N41W is sustaining light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate northerly swell north of 24N between 53W and the central/southern Florida coast. Gentle to moderate NW winds with 5 to 6 ft seas are evident northwest of the aforementioned cold front. Gentle to moderate NNE to ENE trades and seas at 8 to 10 ft in large northerly swell are found across the northeast Atlantic north of 22N between the northwest African coast and 53W, including the Canary Islands. To the south, gentle to moderate NE to E trades with 7 to 9 ft seas exist from 09N to 22N/24N between the central African coast and the Lesser Antilles/53W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh southerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast, the cold front extends across the northern Florida offshore waters from 31N78W to central Florida. The front will move southeastward and stall from near Bermuda across the northwest Bahamas to the Straits of Florida Thu night. Fresh NW winds will briefly follow the front tonight through early Thu. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Over the weekend, another cold front will enter the northern Florida waters, bringing fresh to strong northerly winds behind it. $$ Chan