000 AXNT20 KNHC 162251 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Nov 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends this evening from near Naples, Florida, to the far E Bay of Campeche. Behind it, fresh to strong winds dominate, except for gales within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. These will persist through Thu night, with seas on Thu building to as high as 15 ft. Please read the high seas forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from 08N16W to 05N30W, then continues on the other side of a surface trough, from 05N37W to 08N46W to 10N52W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection extends from the ITCZ to 13N between 44W and 50W. Scattered moderate convection exists within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force winds within the next 48 hours. A cold front that stretches from near Naples, Florida, to the eastern-most Bay of Campeche is inducing fresh to strong N winds behind it along with 6 to 8 ft seas. Ahead of the front, gentle NE winds prevail with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Scattered moderate convection extends within 120 nm on either side of the cold front. For the forecast, the front will move SE and extend across the far NE Gulf on Thu morning, and move just SE of the basin by Thu evening. Strong to gale force northerly winds prevail within 120 nm of the Mexican coast to the W of the front. Strong high pressure building over Alabama today will tightening the pressure gradient across the Gulf through Fri. As a result, expect increasing winds and building seas across most of the basin, with gale force winds over the SW Gulf through early Fri. A trough is forecast to develop over the western Gulf during the upcoming weekend. This pattern could bring gale conditions over most of the western Gulf, and strong to near gale winds over the eastern and south-central Gulf Sat evening through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from the Atlantic, across the Windward Passage, southward to about 15N74W. No significant precipitation is occurring with the trough, and the only active convection is along and S of 11N between Costa Rica and Colombia, where scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is associated with the eastward extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Fresh to locally strong trades exist in the central Caribbean and Windward passage, with fresh to strong trades in the eastern basin, and gentle to moderate NE winds elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the basin, except 3 to 5 ft in the NW. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between 1023 mb high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds during the next several days. Fresh to locally strong NE winds will pulse off Colombia tonight and again Sat night. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel late Thu, and stall across the NW Caribbean Fri. Strong NE winds will prevail behind the front across the Yucatan Channel, while seas build across the far NW through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 31N77W to Central Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and behind this boundary. An upper level trough along 43W roughly between 10N and 25N is inducing scattered moderate convection within 90 nm on either side of its axis, otherwise the basin is dominated by high pressure, centered near 32N40W at 1023 mb. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are ongoing behind the cold front, otherwise, N of 22N, light to gentle winds prevail, with moderate to locally fresh trades to the S. There is an area of locally strong E winds near the coast of Hispaniola. To the E of 60W, seas are 6 to 8 ft, with 4 to 6 ft seas to the west, except 1 to 3 ft near and to the W of the Bahamas. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and stall from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas to the Straits of Florida Thu night. Fresh NW winds will briefly follow the front tonight through early Thu. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Over the weekend, another cold front will enter the NE Florida waters, bringing fresh to strong northerly winds behind it. $$ KONARIK