000 AXNT20 KNHC 152215 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Nov 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico will induce gales this evening offshore Veracruz as it passes, followed by an additional round of gale conditions Wed through at least Thu. Seas in this region may approach 12 ft. Please, read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST, at the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes out of Senegal near 13N16W to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 06N33W to 06N42W. A surface trough is along 43W from 03N to 15N. Scattered moderate convection extends between the monsoon trough and ITCZ and 13N. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about the forecast for gale-force winds offshore Veracruz, Mexico, over the next 48 hours. A 1014 mb low pressure is centered over the western tip of the Florida Panhandle, with a cold front extending SW from the low across the Gulf, to near Veracruz. Scattered moderate convection is noted between 24N and 26N E of 90W. Behind the front, fresh N winds dominate, with strong winds over the western Gulf S of 25N. Ahead of the front, winds are gentle. Seas behind the front are 5 to 7 ft, except 7 to 10 ft in the area of strong winds. Ahead of the front, seas are 3 ft or less. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from Tampa Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning. The front will reach the SE Gulf on Thu morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds follow the front with gale force winds occurring near Tampico, Mexico. The gales will migrate southward to near Veracruz, Mexico this evening into tonight. By Wed, strong high pressure will build over Texas, tightening the gradient across the Gulf region. As a result, expect increasing winds and building seas across the basin, with gale force winds over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area, late Wed through Thu night. Very rough seas will build over the SW Gulf by late Thu. Strong winds will persist in the SW Gulf through Fri before the next cold front enters the basin on Sat. Gales are possible in the western Gulf with this front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from Haiti to Aruba. Dry air is precluding significant convection, except for in the far SW basin, along 11N between Panama and Colombia, where the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough is leading to scattered moderate convection. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the central and eastern Caribbean, with locally strong winds in the Windward Passage and offshore Colombia. To the west, gentle to moderate trades are ongoing. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the NW basin. For the forecast, the gradient between subtropical high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds during the next several days. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage through Wed. Fresh to locally strong NE winds will pulse off Colombia tonight and Wed night. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel late Thu, with seas building in the far NW Caribbean through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating stationary front extends from Bermuda to NE Florida. A surface trough stretches from 30N60W to Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is located within 90 nm on either side of the trough, to the N of 24N. Farther E, another surface trough is along 57W from 13N to 23N. This trough is inducing scattered moderate convection from 14N to 22N between 50W to 57W. Despite these features, the overall basin is being dominated by a 1026 mb surface ridge centered near 32N39W. This is leading to gentle to moderate winds N of 25N, with moderate to fresh trades to the S. W of 50W, seas are 5 to 7 ft, with 7 to 10 ft to the E. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front will move off NE Florida early Wed, reach from 31N74W to south Florida by Thu morning, and from 31N68W to western Cuba by Fri morning. Fresh NW winds will briefly follow the front on Thu. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Over the weekend, another cold front will enter the NE Florida waters, bringing fresh northerly winds. $$ KONARIK