000 AXNT20 KNHC 150604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Nov 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front currently across the northwestern Gulf will sink southeastward through Wed night. It is expected to bring near-gale to gale-force northerly winds at the west-central and southwestern Gulf by late Tue afternoon. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and OFFSHORE FORECAST at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea-Bissau/Guinea border through 09N18W to 07N22W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 11N between Guinea/Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 22W. An ITCZ continues from 07N22W across 07N30W to 10N40W, and then from 10N50W to just southeast of Trinidad and Tobago. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 22W and 27W, and up to 60 nm along either side of the rest of the ITCZ segments. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Panama and northwestern Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above on a Gale Warning. A warm front extends westward from the Florida Panhandle across the Louisiana coastline to a 1009 mb low near the Louisiana-Texas border, then turns southwestward as a cold front to just south of the Texas-Mexico border. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near the warm front but east of the cold front across the north-central Gulf, including waters near New Orleans. Scattered showers are seen near and up to 90 nm southeast of the cold front. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale SE to SW to NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident across the northwest and north-central Gulf. A surface ridge reaches southwestward from Florida Big Bend Area to south of Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft exist for the west-central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present for the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico by Tue morning, and from N Florida near 29N82W to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front tonight through early Tue over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front with a small area of gale force winds near Veracruz, Mexico Tue afternoon into Tue night. By Wed, strong high pressure will build over Texas, tightening the pressure gradient across the Gulf region. As a result, expect increasing winds and building seas across the basin, with gale force winds over the over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area, from late Wed through Thu night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Jamaica, southern Haiti, Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft are found at the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate easterly trades with 3 to 4 ft seas are evident at the southwestern and central basin. Mainly gentle E to ESE trades and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the northwestern basin. For the forecast, the gradient between subtropical high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds during the next several days. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel late Thu, and move over the NW Caribbean Thu night. Fresh NE winds and building seas will follow the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front stretches westward from southwest of Bermuda across 31N69W to near St. Augustine, Florida then continues as a warm front over northern Florida. Scattered moderate convection is evident up to 90 nm north and 50 nm south of the stationary front. A surface trough is east of the Bahamas near 25N67W. Coupling with an upper-level trough in the vicinity, scattered moderate convection is flaring up north of 22N between 60W and 67W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A 1029 mb Mid-Atlantic High is sustaining gentle to moderate NE to SE winds with 6 to 9 ft seas in northerly swell north of 24N between the northwest African coast 65W. To the west, gentle to moderate ENE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in NE swell are found north of 20N between 65W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Farther south, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE to ENE trades and seas at 6 to 10 ft in northerly swell are seen from 06N to 20N/24N between the central African coast and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle E to SSE winds with 5 to 8 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas follow the stationary front forecast to weaken through Tue. The next cold front will move off northeast Florida early Wed, and reach from 31N73W to central Cuba by Thu morning. Fresh NW winds will briefly follow the front Thu before weakening as high pressure builds through Fri. $$ Chan