000 AXNT20 KNHC 132357 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Nov 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 11N16W to 09N17W. The ITCZ continues from 09N17W to 07N35W to 04N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 13N between 15W and 41W. Isolated moderate convection is from 41W and 58W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from Naples, Florida SW to 23N88W where it stalls and continues to the central Bay of Campeche near 18N93W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds follow the front along with 5-7 ft seas, except in the Veracruz offshore waters where locally strong winds and seas of 8-9 ft prevail. The presence of dry air in the middle levels is inhibiting the development of deep convection in the vicinity of the front and elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, The front will weaken and stall by early Mon as conditions briefly improve. The next cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf Monday evening and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Tue night. Fresh to strong N winds will follow the front with a small area of gale force winds possible near Veracruz Tue night. This front will stall across the Gulf as strong high pressure builds over Texas late Wed. As a result, the gradient will tighten, further increasing winds and building seas through the majority of the basin by Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are across the W Caribbean W of 75W and ahead of a cold front across the SE Gulf of Mexico. Seas in this region of the basin are in the 1-3 ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds are across the remainder central and eastern Caribbean to near 65W where a surface trough axis stretches just E of Puerto Rico. A tighter pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and lower pressure associated with the trough support mainly fresh trade winds across the Lesser Antilles and the Atlantic tropical waters just E of the Antilles where seas are 8-9 ft in N to NE swell. For the forecast, the gradient between a weak high pressure ridge NE of the Bahamas and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will continue to support moderate trade winds across the central Caribbean through Mon. By Tue, the surface trough will weaken while building high pressure in the subtropical Atlantic gradually tightens the gradient, freshening winds across the basin through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 2100 UTC, a cold front stretches across the western Atlantic from 31N75W to West Palm Beach, Florida. Isolated showers are in the immediate vicinity of the front while scattered showers are occuring ahead of the front and across the northern and central Bahamas due to a pre-frontal trough that stretches from 31N72W SW to Andros Island. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh NE winds behind the cold front will gradually progress SE with the front, which is forecast to reach from 31N71W to near Palm Beach, Florida by early Mon before dissipating through the day. The gradient between a surface trough along 66W and subtropical high pressure in the central Atlantic will continue to support moderate to fresh E-SE winds east of 65W before high pressure builds in Monday night. The next front moves into the subtropical Atlantic by late Wed, bringing similar conditions to the NE Florida waters. $$ Ramos