000 AXNT20 KNHC 131035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Nov 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 05N41W to the coast of Guyana near 07N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 15N and west of 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to south of Veracruz, Mexico. Overnight scatterometer indicated gale force winds near Veracruz. These winds have dropped below gale force but continue to be strong. Seas range 8 to 13 ft across the SW Gulf. Fresh to strong N to NE winds also prevail across the northern and central Gulf behind the front. Ahead of the cold front, the weather conditions are fairly tranquil under a weak high pressure regime. Light to gentle northerly winds and seas of 1-4 ft prevail. Isolated thunderstorms are noted off the Tampa Bay coast. For the forecast, the cold front will extend from southwest Florida to central Bay of Campeche this evening and dissipate by Mon. Strong N winds and rough seas will follow the front in the western Bay of Campeche through this evening. Conditions are expected to improve across the Gulf by tonight. The next cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf Tue morning and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Tue night. Fresh to strong N winds will follow the front with possible gale conditions near Veracruz on Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Synoptic observations indicate that a weak surface trough extends from NW Colombia to south of Jamaica. Plenty of tropical moisture and divergence aloft support scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 120 nm on both sides of the trough axis. Meanwhile, in the northeast corner of the Caribbean Sea an approaching surface trough is sustaining some shower activity that is affecting some of the Leeward Islands. The rest of the basin is under mainly tranquil weather conditions. Due to the surface trough, trades across the eastern Caribbean are gentle to moderate. Moderate easterly winds are noted in the central Caribbean with light to gentle winds in the NW basin. Seas range 2-4 ft. For the forecast, the surface trough near the Lesser Antilles will move westward across the E Caribbean today through Mon morning. This will briefly weaken the trade wind flow across the basin. High pressure will build into the region as the trough dissipates along 70W Mon night through Tue, and freshen the trade winds across the entire basin through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad upper level trough in the central Atlantic supports a surface trough that extends from 30N61W to 19N67W. Divergence aloft and tropical moisture being pulled northward are generating a large area of showers and thunderstorms, from 21N to 30N and between 53W and 63W. A bit farther south, another surface trough extends from 21N62W to 14N62W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 17N to 21W and between 51W and 62W. A cold front extends across the eastern and central Atlantic from 31N19W to 19N31W, where it becomes a dissipating cold front to 18N47W to 22N55W. An expansive 1027 mb high pressure system is positioned between Bermuda and the Azores near 32N45W. The pressure gradient due to lower pressures associated with the aforementioned frontal boundary and deep tropics sustain moderate to locally strong easterly winds over most of the central and eastern Atlantic. Overnight scatterometer satellite pass indicate that these winds are occurring north of the ITCZ to about 31N and between 25W and 65W. Some of the strongest winds were found east of the surface trough near the Leeward Islands. Seas are 6-10 ft in the central and eastern Atlantic, with the highest seas occurring near 20N45W. The vast northerly swell region was captured by an altimeter satellite pass from overnight, with seas near 11 ft near 23N50W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong E winds and high seas persist N 18N and E of 60W along a weakening frontal boundary that extends roughly along 18N. The fresh winds will diminish through Mon with seas gradually subsiding through mid- week. A cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early this morning with moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas behind it. The front will dissipate by Mon. The next front will likely move off the NE Florida coast by Wed morning. $$ AReinhart