000
AXNT20 KNHC 122307
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Nov 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: At 2100 UTC, a cold front stretches 
from the Panama City, Florida SW to Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to
near gale force N winds continue to affect the offshore waters W
and N of the front while sustained gales continue in the waters 
offshore Veracruz and S of Tampico. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are behind
the front S of 27N. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere along the
northern gulf offshore waters W of the front. Gale force winds are
forecast to diminish overnight. Afterwards, conditions across the
Gulf will gradually improve through Sun night. Please read the 
latest the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 
11N15W to 08N21W. The ITCZ continues from 08N21W to the coast of 
French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 03N to 10N between 30W and 57W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 03N to 13N between 10W and
30W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING associated with a cold front that extends from the 
western Florida Panhandle to north of Veracruz, Mexico near 
21N97W. 

For the forecast, strong N winds and high seas will continue to 
follow the front through Sun, which is expected to extend from 
southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Sun evening. 
Brief gale conditions are expected to continue offshore of 
Veracruz through early Sun morning. Conditions across the Gulf 
are expected to improve by Sun night before the next cold front 
moves into the NW Gulf Tue morning. This next front is expected to
reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean is resulting in 
light to gentle winds over the western basin and moderate trade 
winds across the central and eastern basin. Seas are 1-3 ft in 
W of 77W and 3-4 ft across the remaining central and E Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure NE of Bermuda will sink 
southeastward and gradually build across the basin today. A 
surface trough will move westward across the E Caribbean tonight 
through Mon morning. This will briefly weaken the trade wind flow 
across the basin. High pressure will build into the region as the 
trough dissipates along 70W Mon night through Tue, and freshen the
trade winds across the entire basin through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Strong E winds and high seas persist N 25N and E of 65W along a 
stalled frontal boundary that extends roughly along 25N-26N. 

For the forecast west of 55W, strong winds associated with the
stalled front will diminish tonight with seas gradually subsiding
through early next week. Moderate northerly swell will impact the
waters E of 70W through tonight before fading Sun. A cold front 
will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Sun with 
moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas behind it. The 
front will weaken as it moves to a position from Bermuda to 
central Florida by Mon night. The next front will likely move off 
the NE Florida coast by mid-week. 
 
$$
Ramos