000 AXNT20 KNHC 121046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Nov 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front stretches from the central Louisiana coast to northern Mexico. Strong N winds follow the front with frequent gusts to gale force expected off the South Texas coast. These gusts will end this afternoon. The cold front will extend from the western Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz this evening, and then from southwest Florida to central Bay of Campeche by Sun evening. Sustained gale force winds will begin across the upper Mexican waters this morning and shift southward to offshore of Cabo Rojo, Mexico this afternoon before diminishing by this evening. Conditions across the Gulf are expected to improve by Sun night. Please read the latest the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 70W, and south of 20N, moving west at around 5 kt. A few showers and thunderstorms are active off the coast of Venezuela east of Caracas. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 08N21W. The ITCZ continues from 08N21W to 05N37W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 10N between 23W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information the Gale Warning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the cold front in the NW Gulf. Outside of the front, a 1014 mb high pressure over the central Gulf is supporting gentle winds and slight seas over most of the basin. For the forecast, the cold front will extend from the western Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz this evening, and then from southwest Florida to central Bay of Campeche by Sun evening. Strong N winds and moderate to high seas will follow the front through Sun. Brief gale conditions will begin across the upper Mexican waters this morning and shift southward to offshore of Cabo Rojo, Mexico this afternoon before diminishing by this evening. Conditions across the Gulf are expected to improve by Sun night before the next cold front moves into the NW Gulf Mon night. This next front is expected to reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean is resulting in light to gentle winds over the western basin and moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern basin. Seas are generally 1-3 ft west of 75W with 3-5 ft east of 75W, along with northerly swell that still propagates through the Mona and Anegada Passages. Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the central Caribbean northward toward Cuba between 71W and 80W. For the forecast, high pressure NE of Bermuda will sink southeastward and gradually build across the basin today. A surface trough will move westward across the E Caribbean tonight through Mon morning. This will briefly weaken the trade wind flow across the basin. High pressure will build into the region as the trough dissipates along 70W Mon night through Tue, and freshen the trade winds across the entire basin through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted off the Florida coast and across the Bahamas. Light to gentle winds are noted in this area with moderate to locally fresh winds off the NE Florida coast in addition to the southern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. Seas are to 6 ft. In the central Atlantic, a trough extends from 22N65W to 29N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and east of this feature from 21N to 29N between 49W and 62W. East of the Lesser Antilles, another trough extends from 10N56W to 19N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near this feature from 14N to 20N between 49W and 59W. In the central and eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N22W to 24N33W to 24N44W, where it becomes stationary and continues to 27N57W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas persist north of this boundary. Northerly swell in excess of 8 ft is evident N of 16N between 22W and 67W. Moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of 35W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are evident east of 35W, south of the front. For the forecast west of 55W, the strong winds along the cold front will diminish today with seas gradually subsiding through early next week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Sun with moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas behind it. The front will weaken as it moves to a position from Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Mon night. The next front will likely move off the NE Florida coast by mid-week. $$ AReinhart