000 AXNT20 KNHC 110517 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Nov 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Nicole is centered over the Florida Panhandle near 30.7N 84.3W at 11/0300 UTC or 20 nm N of Tallahassee Florida moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Regional radar is showing a few showers in the southeast quadrant of the low over the Florida Big Bend area, but otherwise most of the weather associated with Nicole is over the Tennessee Valley. A recent scatterometer satellite pass along with buoy observations indicate fresh to strong W to NW winds over the far northeast Gulf, where buoys are also reporting 8 to 10 ft seas offshore. An outer rainband extends over the Atlantic from the Straits of Florida to near Charleston, SC. Buoys are showing wave heights of 12 to 19 ft over Atlantic waters west of 70W and north of the Bahamas. Winds and seas will diminish over the Gulf and Atlantic waters as Nicole continues to move inland and weaken, before being absorbed into a large mid-latitude weather system over the next couple of days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well as the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas coast on Fri night and extends from Pensacola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon. Fresh to near gale force winds will follow this front, which will reach gale force speed just N of Tampico Sat morning. These northerly winds will reach the Veracruz offshore waters Sat afternoon/early evening. Please read the latest the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis S of 19N and near 65W, moving west at around 5 kt. No significant convection is evident near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 05N35W to 07N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 08N, between 10W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 47W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Nicole and an upcoming Gale Warning. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are evident across the Gulf, outside of the strong winds and rough seas over the northeast Gulf related to T.S. Nicole. No significant weather is evident other than showers and thunderstorms in the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, Strong winds and rough seas are expected over the northeastern Gulf through this morning. Looking ahead, a cold front should move over the northwest Gulf Fri evening and stretch from SE Louisiana to NE Mexico by Sat morning, and from Tampa Bay, FL to the western Bay of Campeche by Sun morning. Strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front through Sun. Minimal gale force northerly winds are also expected in the wake of the front near the Tampico area by Sat afternoon with rough seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... The presence of Tropical Storm Nicole over northwest Florida continue to disrupt the Atlantic subtropical ridge, which typically governs trade wind flow across the Caribbean. As a result winds are light to gentle and variable across the western half of the Caribbean with 1-3 ft seas. Moderate trade wind flow is across the eastern half of the basin, being supported by the passage of a tropical wave. Seas to 3 ft dominate this region. For the forecast, high pressure will gradually build north of the area as Nicole moves farther inland over the SE of United States. Moderate winds will increase over the central Caribbean through the weekend. Locally fresh winds are expected to develop over the eastern Caribbean by early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on Tropical Storm Nicole. West of 70W, the subtropical Atlantic is dominated by the circulation of Tropical Storm Nicole, described in detail in the Special Features Section above. A cold front extends from 31N29W to 26N45W to 27N50W, where it becomes stationary and continues to 30N72W. North of this boundary, winds are fresh to strong from the E and SE with 8-14 ft seas, higher closer to Nicole. South of the boundary, winds are gentle to moderate from the E to SE with 4-8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, large seas of 12 ft or greater associated with Nicole and a frontal boundary that extends roughly along 27N are forecast to gradually subside today, with seas dropping below 12 ft by this evening. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Sun with moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas behind it. The front will weaken as it moves to a position from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Mon night. $$ Christensen