000 AXNT20 KNHC 101036 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Nov 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly downgraded Tropical Storm Nicole is centered inland near 27.8N 80.7W at 10/0900 UTC or 20 nm NW of Vero Beach Florida moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Regional radar shows banding from Nicole stretching from South Florida from Palm Beach to Naples northward to the Florida Big Bend. Heaviest rain is impacting the Ft. Myers area. Seas are currently peaking 28 ft right off the Cape Canaveral coast. Seas are also approaching 12 ft in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The 12 ft seas are noted N of 24N and W of 55W. Nicole will take a turn toward the northwest and north- northwest later today and tonight, followed by an acceleration toward the north and north-northeast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move across central Florida this morning, possibly emerge over the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, and then moving across the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight and on Friday. Additional weakening is forecast while Nicole moves over land during the next day or two, and the storm is likely to become a tropical depression over Georgia tonight or early Friday. Nicole is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the Mid-Atlantic United States by Friday night. Dangerous storm surge, surf and heavy rainfall is expected with this system. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well as the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Just to the west of the tropical storm force winds of Nicole, winds off the extreme Florida Panhandle coast can expect strong winds with frequent gusts to gale force. These winds are expected to continue until early Fri morning. Please read the latest the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml as well as the local NWS Forecast offices Tallahassee, FL and Mobile, AL for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean Sea, extends along 63W, south of 19N, moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted south of 13N between 62W and 65W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near the border of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 06N36W to 10N46W, where the convergent flow is interrupted by a surface trough. The ITCZ resumes near 08N53W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 12N, between 18W and 61W. GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Nicole. Current observations north of Tampa, Florida are showing tropical storm force winds occurring off the Florida west coast. Strong NE winds and rough seas encompass the eastern Gulf north of 25N, east of 87W, on the western periphery of Nicole. Buoys are reporting 12 ft seas in the eastern Gulf. Moderate N to NE winds and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the basin. Spiraling outer bands from Nicole is noted across the extreme eastern Gulf, E of 84W. For the forecast, Nicole will move to 28.9N 82.8W this afternoon, inland to 31.2N 84.1W Fri morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 34.7N 82.6W Fri afternoon, and dissipate Sat morning. Outside of Nicole, frequent gusts to gale force are expected over the extreme Florida Panhandle through early Fri morning. Strong winds and rough seas are expected over the eastern Gulf through Fri morning, with conditions across the eastern Gulf improving through Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front should move over the northwest Gulf Fri evening and stretch from the Florida Big Bend to the western Bay of Campeche Sat night, then dissipate by Sun night. Strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front over the far western Gulf Sat through Sun morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... The presence of Tropical Storm Nicole north of the is disrupting the subtropical ridge, which typically governs trade wind flow across the Caribbean. Several overnight scatterometer satellite passes showed light and variable winds across most of the basin. Concurrent altimeter satellite passes show slight seas as well. The only exception is over the far eastern Caribbean where moderate E winds are evident associated with the tropical wave entering the basin. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will produce gentle to moderate winds across the area over the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on Tropical Storm Nicole. West of 70W, the subtropical Atlantic is dominated by Hurricane Nicole, described in detail in the Special Features Section above. A cold front extends from 31N41W to 28N56W where it transitions to a stationary front and extends to 29N71W. Overnight scatterometer satellite pass indicated strong to near-gale force winds north of the stationary front. Rough to very rough seas are noted north of the front as well. Mostly gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, Nicole will move to 28.9N 82.8W this afternoon, inland to 31.2N 84.1W Fri morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 34.7N 82.6W Fri afternoon, and dissipate Sat morning. The large seas associated with Nicole will diminish over the waters W of 70W by Sat morning. For waters E of 70W, northerly swell is expected to continue through the weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Sun, then weaken as it moves to a position from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Mon night. $$ AReinhart