000 AXNT20 KNHC 092237 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Nov 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 26.5N 77.9W at 09/2100 UTC or 50 nm E of Freeport Grand Bahama Island moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 90 nm of the storm's center with outer rain bands extending up to 300 nm north of the center. Nicole is an enormous storm with tropical storm force winds extending 390 nm in the NW quadrant and 420 nm in the NE quadrant. Seas 12 ft or greater extend over 600 nm in the NE quadrant and 360 nm in the NW quadrant. Peak seas are near 35 ft, mainly NW of the center. Nicole will bring high-end tropical storm or low- end hurricane conditions to the NW Bahamas this evening. By tonight, a small area of hurricane force winds are expected to impact the Florida coast, between Boca Raton and the Flagler/Volusia County Line, embedded in a very large area of tropical storm impacts from Hallandale Beach, FL to South Santee River, SC. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well as the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 61W, from 06N to 17N, moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 15N, between 59W and 65W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to 06N27W to 11N42W, where the convergent flow is interrupted by a surface trough. The ITCZ resumes west of the trough from 11N50W to 12N56W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 08N, between 21W and 29W and from 09N to 15N, between 36W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Nicole, approaching Florida's east coast. Strong NE winds encompass the eastern Gulf E of 87W due to Tropical Storm Nicole, and seas in this area are 8 to 10 ft. For the remainder of the Gulf, gentle to moderate NW flow and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Nicole near 26.5N 77.9W 985 mb at 4 PM EST moving W at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Nicole will strengthen to a hurricane near 27.3N 80.1W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 28.8N 82.8W Thu afternoon while reaching the Gulf of Mexico briefly, move inland again to 31.0N 84.0W Fri morning, weaken to a remnant low well north of the area. Nicole will bring tropical storm force winds to the far northeast Gulf tonight through Thu night, and strong winds and rough seas elsewhere over the eastern Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish through Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front should move over the northwest Gulf Fri night, stalling from west- central Florida to the southwest Gulf by Sat night. Strong winds and rough seas will follow the front over the far western Gulf Sat and Sat night before diminishing on Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Tropical Waves Section above for details on a tropical wave moving through the Lesser Antilles that is inducing convection over the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, the typical pressure gradient has been disrupted by Tropical Storm Nicole, passing well N of the area, leading to light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across the basin. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will continue to lead to gentle to moderate winds across the area through the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on Tropical Storm Nicole, which is impacting much of the waters west of 60W and N of 23N. East of 70W, the subtropical Atlantic is dominated by Tropical Storm Nicole, described in detail in the Special Features Section above. A weak cold front is spilling S of 30N, with strong to near gale force NE to E winds to the N of it. Seas in this area of strong winds range from 10 to 16 ft. South of the boundary, winds are mainly gentle with 6-8 ft seas. A surface ridge extending from a 1024 mb high pressure E of the Azores dominates the remainder of the basin. In the central Atlantic, moderate to fresh SW winds are observed north of 28N and E of 50W, with gentle winds further south. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds are observed along the coast of Western Sahara. Seas are 6-8 ft throughout the central and eastern Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Nicole near 26.5N 77.9W 985 mb at 4 PM EST moving W at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Nicole will strengthen to a hurricane near 27.3N 80.1W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 28.8N 82.8W Thu afternoon, move inland to 31.0N 84.0W Fri morning, weaken to a remnant low well north of the area. Large seas from Nicole will diminish over the NW waters by Sat morning. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Sun, then weaken as it moves to a position from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by early Mon. $$ KONARIK