000 AXNT20 KNHC 081715 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Nov 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly transitioned Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 27.8N 72.7W at 08/1500 UTC or 300 nm NE of the Northwestern Bahamas moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 27N to 30N between 71W and 76W. Seas are peaking near 23 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 480 nm in the NE quadrant, 390 nm in the NW quadrant, 330 nm in the SE quadrant, and 240 nm in the SW quadrant. Nicole is expected to move in a west-northwest motion by Wednesday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Thursday and Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas today and tonight, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area Wednesday night. Nicole's center is then expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday night. Strengthening is expected during the next 36 to 48 hours, and Nicole is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength by Wednesday and Wednesday night while it is moving near the northwestern Bahamas and approaching the east coast of Florida. Dangerous storm surge, rough surf, and heavy rainfall is expected as the storm approaches Florida. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well as the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 56W, from 18N southward, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 54W and 58W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N18W. The ITCZ extends from 08N18W to 06N38W to 07N53W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 11N and E of 54W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more on Tropical Storm Nicole. A surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate showers are in the vicinity of the trough. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted over the far eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except for the far SW Gulf where gentle winds prevail. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range east of 90W, and 2-4 ft west of 90W. For the forecast, Nicole has transitioned to a tropical storm this morning. Tropical Storm Nicole is near 27.8N 72.7W with 994 mb at 10 AM EST moving W at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Nicole will move to 27.3N 74.1W this evening, 26.8N 76.0W Wed morning, then strengthen to a hurricane near 27.0N 78.3W Wed evening. Hurricane Nicole will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 28.1N 80.9W Thu morning, then be near 30.0N 83.1W Thu evening. Tropical Storm Nicole will be near 32.7N 82.5W Fri morning. Nicole will become extratropical as it moves through the northeast U.S. early Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Nicole north of the area is creating a loose pressure gradient across the Caribbean waters. The weak gradient is supporting mainly light to gentle winds across the central Caribbean, reaching moderate speeds over the far eastern and NW waters. Seas are up to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the east-central Caribbean from 11N to 17N between 65W and 73W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean S of 12N between 75W and 82W. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas will persist into the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on Tropical Storm Nicole, which is impacting much of the waters west of 60W. The pressure gradient between TS Nicole and strong high pressure to the north of the area is bringing strong to near gale-force winds off most of the Florida coast. Buoy 41009, about 20 nm east of Cape Canaveral, Florida, confirms 12 ft seas off the central Florida coast. East of TS Nicole, high pressure extends across the central and eastern Atlantic. A trough extends from 21N42W to 31N38W with gentle to moderate winds near it and no significant convection. Light to gentle winds prevails N of 20W and E of 55W. Gentle to moderate winds are S of 20N. Seas 5-6 ft are noted across the central and eastern Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, Nicole transitioned to a tropical storm this morning. Tropical Storm Nicole is near 27.8N 72.7W with 994 mb at 10 AM EST moving W at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Nicole will move to 27.3N 74.1W this evening, 26.8N 76.0W Wed morning, then strengthen to a hurricane near 27.0N 78.3W Wed evening. Hurricane Nicole will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 28.1N 80.9W Thu morning, then be near 30.0N 83.1W Thu evening. Tropical Storm Nicole will be near 32.7N 82.5W Fri morning. Nicole will become extratropical as it moves through the northeast U.S. early Sat. $$ AReinhart