000 AXNT20 KNHC 080601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Nov 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE... The center of SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE, at 08/0600 UTC, is near 27.3N 71.2W, or about 359 nm/665 km to the ENE of the NW Bahamas. Nicole is moving toward the NW, or 315 degrees, 06 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Tropical storm-force winds are within 270 nm from the center in the NE quadrant; within 270 nm from the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 180 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within 480 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 270 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 150 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 300 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. higher from 23N to 27N between 62W and 65W. The maximum sea height is forecast to be 19 feet. The wind speeds are ranging from 20 knots to 33 knots, and the sea heights are ranging from 10 feet to 12 feet, elsewhere from 21N to 31N between 61W and 81W. Expect the wind speeds to be 20 knots or less, and the sea heights to range from 8 feet to 11 feet in mixed swell, in the remainder of the area that is from 21N to 31N between 57W and 76W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 17N northward between 57W and 76W, from the NE Caribbean Sea into the Atlantic Ocean. Other isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea from 73W eastward, and elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 55W westward. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, and the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... Central Subtropical Atlantic: A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 32.5N53W, about 700 miles to the east of Bermuda. This low pressure center is producing winds near gale-force, and a small area of rainshowers that is far- removed to the east of the low pressure center. The system is accelerating northeastward toward cooler waters, while remaining in a region of strong upper level winds. The chance for significant development is diminishing quickly. More information about this system, including gale warnings, is found in High Seas Forecasts that are issued by the National Weather Service. The chance of development into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W, from 17N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 12N southward, within 300 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 500 nm to the west of the tropical wave. The ITCZ is from 08N to 09N between 53W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Guinea and Sierra Leone, to 09N20W and 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W, to 04N29W 05N40W 09N50W. The ITCZ is from 08N to 09N between 53W and 60W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 06N to 11N between 17W and 23W, and from 04N southward between 46W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 15N southward from 50W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE, which is forecast to affect the eastern Gulf of Mexico from the end of this week into the weekend. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, from a trough, spans the Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from the Jamaica-to-26N92W surface trough, to the west and southwest. The sea heights have been ranging from 2 feet to 4 feet in most areas. The exceptions have been small areas of 5 feet in the central and the southeastern sections. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 90W eastward. Moderate wind speeds or slower have been from 90W westward. A surface trough extends from just to the south of Jamaica, through the Yucatan Peninsula, to 26N92W in the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate easterly winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are from 90W eastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the Gulf of Mexico. Subtropical Storm Nicole near 27.0N 71.1W 998 mb at 10 PM EST moving NW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Nicole will move to 27.4N 72.4W Tue morning, 27.2N 74.5W Tue evening, 26.7N 76.6W Wed morning, 26.8N 78.8W Wed evening, inland to 27.5N 81.1W Thu morning, and inland to 28.9N 82.6W Thu evening. Nicole will move to near 33.1N 80.2W late Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE. A broad upper level trough extends from the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea beyond Hispaniola, into the Atlantic Ocean. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea. Moderate NE winds are in the NW corner of the area from 20N from 80W westward, and into the Yucatan Channel. Mostly moderate wind speeds or slower are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the eastern one-third. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough extends from just to the south of Jamaica, through the Yucatan Peninsula, to 26N92W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 15N northward from Hispaniola westward. Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that ended at 08/0000 UTC, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN, are: 0.47 in Guadeloupe, and 0.13 in Bermuda. The three-day total for Guadeloupe is at least two inches. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from the coast of Colombia near 74W westward, through Panama/Costa Rica westward, into the Tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 16N southward, from 73W westward. Large northerly swell will persist over Atlantic waters east of the northern Leewards Islands into Tue. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas will persist through late week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE. A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 32.5N53W. This low pressure center has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Large-scale upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward from 50W eastward. A 1019 mb low pressure center is near 29N39W. A surface trough passes through the 29N39W low pressure center, to 20N39W, to 09N44W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N to 14N between 34W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward between 34W and 44W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 11 feet, to the north of the line 14N17W 10N35W 09N50W from 50W eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, to the south of the 14N17W 09N50W line from 50W eastward. The sea heights have been ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet from 20N northward between 40W and 60W. Fresh NE wind speeds are from 10N to 20N between 40W and 50W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are from 10N to 15N between 55W and 60W. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are from 15N to 20N between 55W and 60W. The SE wind flow eventually feeds into the circulation that is around NICOLE. Moderate wind speeds or slower are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, from 50W eastward, and away from NICOLE. Subtropical Storm Nicole near 27.0N 71.1W 998 mb at 10 PM EST moving NW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Nicole will move to 27.4N 72.4W Tue morning, 27.2N 74.5W Tue evening, 26.7N 76.6W Wed morning, 26.8N 78.8W Wed evening, inland to 27.5N 81.1W Thu morning, and inland to 28.9N 82.6W Thu evening. Nicole will move to near 33.1N 80.2W late Fri. $$ mt/al