000 AXNT20 KNHC 070947 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Nov 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently developed Subtropical Storm Nicole is centered near 25.5N 68.5W at 07/0900 UTC or 480 nm E of the Northwestern Bahamas moving NNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas are peaking near 15 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 20N to 31N between 55W and 70W. The system should turn northwestward and slow down later today, followed by a turn toward the west and west-southwest tonight through Tuesday night. Nicole is expected to make a sharp recurvature toward the north and northeast on days 4 and 5 in the vicinity of Florida. Some gradual strengthening is anticipated over the next few days. Nicole is forecast to acquire tropical characteristics in a couple of days. The current forecast brings Nicole close to hurricane strength in 60-72 hours while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the east coast of Florida. Nicole is forecast to be a large storm, and regardless of its exact path, widespread impacts from a prolonged period of coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf and rip currents, and beach erosion are likely along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the northwestern and central Bahamas during much of the upcoming week. Nicole could be at or near hurricane strength when it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of Florida Wednesday and Thursday, bringing the potential for a dangerous storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall to a portion of those areas. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well as the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Elsewhere, a well-defined area of low pressure located about 650 miles east of Bermuda continues to produce gale-force winds, but the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is displaced to the east of the low's center due to strong upper-level winds. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for development while the system moves northward and then northeastward at about 10 mph, but a short-lived tropical storm could still form later today or on Tuesday before the low dissipates and merges with a cold front. There is a medium chance for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by OPC at www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 50W, from 17N southward, moving westward around 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 40W and 55W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 09N47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 16W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends across the eastern Gulf with a high pressure ridge extending across the western Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail across the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten between high pressure building southward over the area and Subtropical Storm Nicole that will approach Florida from the Bahamas through mid week. This pattern will result in increasing winds and building seas over the eastern Gulf. Nicole is forecast to enter the far NE Gulf of Mexico late Wed night before lifting back over Florida on Friday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... With newly developed subtropical Storm Nicole over the SW North Atlantic waters, broad low pressure prevails north of the area. This is resulting in a loose pressure gradient across the Caribbean waters. The weak gradient is supporting mainly light to gentle winds across thr Caribbean, reaching moderate speeds over the far eastern waters. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the central and eastern Caribbean with 1-3 ft seas over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, light to gentle winds, locally moderate, with slight to moderate seas will persist through the middle of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on recently developed Subtropical Storm Nicole, which is impacting much of the waters west of 60W. In addition, please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more on an area of low pressure near 31N54W. Elsewhere, another area of low pressure is centered near 31N36W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-9 ft prevail north of 20N and east of 60W. South of 20N, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5-8 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, Subtropical Storm Nicole near 25.5N 68.5W 1004 mb at 4 AM EST moving NNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. The system is forecast to develop more tropical characteristics by Tue night. Nicole will gradually intensify as the system moves to 26.3N 69.3W this afternoon, 27.5N 70.5W Tue morning, 28.2N 72.3W Tue afternoon, 27.6N 74.9W Wed morning, 26.8N 77.3W Wed afternoon, and 27.0N 79.5W Thu morning, then to 29.2N 83.3W early Fri. $$ AL