000 AXNT20 KNHC 070604 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Nov 07 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS... Gale-force winds are from 23N to 27N between 62W and 65W. Elsewhere from 21N to 31N between 58W and 70W SE winds from 20 knots to 30 knots, and sea heights that range from 10 feet to 15 feet. The 24-hour forecast is for the feature to be a possible tropical cyclone, near 26N71W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 14N in the Caribbean Sea northward into the Atlantic Ocean between 55W and 75W. This system is forecast to move generally northwestward into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. The environmental conditions appear to be conducive for additional development. It is likely for a subtropical or tropical storm to form in the next day or so. The system then is forecast to turn westward or west-southwestward in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean by the middle part of this week where more development is possible. Expect an increasing risk of coastal flooding, tropical storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and parts of the central and northwestern Bahamas, during the early to middle part of this week. Anyone who has interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. It is possible that tropical storm, hurricane, and storm surge watches may be required for a part of these areas by early Monday. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. More information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, and in bulletins/forecasts from your local weather office. ...DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... A well-defined area of low pressure, that is several hundred miles to the east of Bermuda, continues to produce gale-force winds and an area of showers and thunderstorms that is displaced to the east of the center. It is possible that a tropical storm may form during the next couple of days, while the system drifts slowly through tomorrow, and then moves northeastward in the central Atlantic Ocean, if rainshower activity re-develops closer to the center. The system is forecast to merge with a strong cold front by the middle part of this week. More information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W, from 17N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 08N to 13N between 44W and 56W. within 210 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 600 nm to the west of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W, to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W, to 07N20W 08N40W 09N46W 09N55W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 44W eastward, and within 240 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 44W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 14N southward between 44W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The remnants of Lisa are a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 22N96W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 90W westward. Fresh SE winds are from 80 nm to 190 nm to the northeast of the 1011 mb low pressure center. Moderate or slower SE winds are in the rest of the area that is from 90W westward. Isolated moderate is from 24N southward from 93W westward. A surface trough extends from Jamaica, through the Yucatan Channel, to 27N87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate easterly winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are from 90W eastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 93W eastward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 90W westward, to the south of the line that runs from SE Louisiana to the lower Texas Gulf coast. The pressure gradient will tighten between high pressure building southward over the area and broad low pressure that will approach Florida from the Bahamas through mid week. This pattern will result in increasing winds and building seas Mon through Thu over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a 1005 mb low pressure center that is near 17N69W. A broad upper level trough extends from the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea beyond Hispaniola, into the Atlantic Ocean. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea. Mostly moderate southerly winds are between 60W and 70W, on the SE side around the developing 1005 mb low pressure center. Some fresh to strong southerly winds are from 16N northward between 60W and 65W. The sea heights range from 10 feet to 12 feet from 18N to 20N between 60W and 62W. The sea heights range mostly from 3 feet to 5 feet from 18N southward between 60W and 70W. A surface trough extends from Jamaica, through the Yucatan Channel, to 27N87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 17N northward from the Windward Passage westward. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are from the surface trough northward between the Windward Passage and 82W. Moderate NE winds are from 85W westward from 18N southward, toward the Gulf of Honduras. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet from 80W westward. A surface trough extends from the western sections of the Dominican Republic, southwestward, to 11N79W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 80 nm to the south and to the southeast of the surface trough closer to 79W, and within 240 nm to the southeast of the trough closer to 68W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet between 70W and 80W. Moderate SW and S winds are between the surface trough and South America between 72W and 80W. Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that ended at 07/0000 UTC, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN, are: 1.05 in Guadeloupe. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from the coast of Colombia near 75W/76W westward, through Panama/Costa Rica westward, into the Tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N southward, from the Dominican Republic-to-11N79W surface trough westward. Broad low pressure well north of Puerto Rico is supporting strong to near-gale force winds over Atlantic waters east of the northern Leewards Islands along with rough seas. The winds will diminish through tonight, however large swell will persist in this area into Tue. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas will persist through the early and middle portions of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about gale-force winds and a developing 1005 mb low pressure center, in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. A second developing system is a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 31.5N53W. Large-scale upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 14N northward from 44W eastward. A 1018 mb low pressure center is near 31N36W. The 1012 mb low pressure center is near 31.5N53W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 14 feet, to the north of the line 31N10W 22N20W 12N40W 09N52W 13N60W, and from 20N northward from 60W westward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh winds cover much of the area that is from 70W westward, and from 10N to 25N between 33W and 57W, and within 180 nm of the coast of Africa from 23N northward. Moderate wind speeds or slower are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean, away from the developing 1005 mb low pressure center that is in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. Large NE to E swell will prevail across the entire area tonight. Low pressure located more than 300 miles north of Puerto Rico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move generally northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic where the environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form in the next day or so. The system is then forecast to turn westward or west-southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic by the middle part of this week where additional development is possible. A tight pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure farther north will lead to a broad area of strong to near-gale force SE winds east of the low, possibly reaching minimal gale force with rough seas north of the Leeward Islands and east of the central Bahamas tonight. Strong to gale force winds and very rough seas will impact waters off northeast Florida from late Mon through mid week as the low pressure shifts northwestward into a strong ridge centered north of the area. $$ mt/al