000 AXNT20 KNHC 062321 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Nov 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwestern Atlantic Low Pressure with Gale Warning... An area of low pressure located more than 200 miles north of Puerto Rico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Strong winds are noted north and east of this system with gale force winds to the east of the low pressure. Seas are up to 15 ft, with the 12 ft seas extending from 18N to 25N between 60W and 66W. This system is forecast to move northward and then northwestward into the southwestern Atlantic where environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form in the next day or so. The system is then forecast to turn westward or west- southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic by the middle part of this week where additional development is possible. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas beginning in the early to middle part of this week. Interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas by early Monday. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and in products from your local weather office. This system is forecast to move northward or northwestward further into the southwestern Atlantic today, then turn westward or west- southwestward early this week. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for additional development and it is likely to become a subtropical or tropical depression early this week. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early to middle part of this week. This system has a high chance of developing within 48 hours. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. Central Subtropical Atlantic Low Pressure with Gale Warning... A well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of Bermuda continues to produce gale-force winds and an area of showers and thunderstorms displaced northeast of the center. If the associated shower activity redevelops closer to the center, a tropical storm could form over the next couple of days while the system drifts slowly initially but then begins to move northeastward over the central Atlantic. The system is then forecast to merge with a strong cold front by the middle part of this week. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. This system has a high chance of developing within 48 hours. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by OPC at www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 46W from 17N southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 45W and 47W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast near 09N13W to 08N16W. The ITCZ extends from 08N16W to 07N34W to 09N45W and then W of a tropical wave near 09N48W to 14N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the ITCZ from 05N to 10N between 23W and 43W and from 07N to 12N between 47W and 58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 10W and 23W. The eastern end of East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms over Panama, northwestern Colombia, and adjacent Caribbean waters S of 13N between 75W and 84W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Convergent southerly winds southeast of the remnants of former Tropical Depression Lisa are generating isolated thunderstorms at the central Bay of Campeche. A surface ridge extends southwestward from the southeast U.S. to north of Tampico, Mexico. This feature is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds across much of the Gulf. Seas range from 3 to 5 ft across the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche, and 1 to 3 ft for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the pressure gradient WILL tighten between high pressure building southward over the area and broad low pressure that will approach Florida from the Bahamas through mid week. This pattern will result in increasing winds and building seas Mon through Thu over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface to mid-level trough runs northward from near the ABC Islands to beyond the Mona Passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found across the east-central basin, especially over the Leeward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong S to SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present at the eastern and south-central basin. Gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist at the southwestern basin. Gentle NE to ENE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, favorable conditions aloft support the development of broad low pressure well north of Puerto Rico. This pattern has been supporting strong to near- gale force winds over Atlantic waters east of the northern Leewards Islands along with rough seas. The winds will diminish through tonight, however large swell will persist in this area into Tue. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas will persist through the early and middle portions of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about gale warnings and potential sub-tropical/tropical development in the Atlantic. High pressure extends across the east coast of Florida. Due to the influence of the low pres north of Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and the Florida offshore waters are experiencing NE to E moderate to fresh winds. Seas are reaching 8 ft off the Melbourne, FL coast southward along the Bahamas. Scattered showers are also moving across the area. In the central Atlantic, light to gentle winds are noted under surface high pres extending across this area. Seas range 5 to 6 ft. A surface trough extends from 32N36W to 30N39W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near this feature N of 26N between 32W and 40W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are on the W side of this feature with seas to 11 ft near 31N39W. In the eastern Atlantic, high pres also extends across the northwest coast of Africa to the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate NE winds prevail over the Morocco and Western Sahara coast with seas to 7 ft. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the eastern Atlantic N of 08N and W of 20W. Seas range 8 to 11 ft in NW swell, N of the Cabo Verde Islands and W of the Canary Islands from 22N to 31N between 16W and 35W. South of 22N, seas range 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, large NE to E swell will prevail across the entire area tonight. Broad low pressure is developing north of Puerto Rico and east of the southern Bahamas. The low is forecast to move northward and then northwestward toward the northern Bahamas, where environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development. A subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form in the next day or so. A tight pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure farther north will lead to a broad area of strong to near-gale force SE winds east of the low, possibly reaching minimal gale force with rough seas north of the Leeward Islands and east of the central Bahamas tonight. Strong to gale force winds and very rough seas will impact waters off northeast Florida from late Mon through mid week as the low pressure shifts northwestward into a strong ridge centered north of the area. $$ AReinhart