000 AXNT20 KNHC 060601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Nov 06 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE WINDS... Gale-force winds, and sea heights to range from 12 feet to 14 feet, are forecast to develop in about 18 hours, in the area that is from 21N to 24N between 63W and 64W. A 1008 mb Caribbean Sea low pressure center is near 17N69W. This feature is forecast to move northward into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, to the north of Hispaniola. The environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development. It is likely for a subtropical or tropical depression to form early next week. The general movement is expected to be westward to west- northwestward in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Expect an increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and parts of the central and northwestern Bahamas, during the early to middle part of next week. The disturbance is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this weekend. anyone who has interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. ...DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... The convective precipitation has become better organized, in association with a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 32N53W, several hundred miles to the east of Bermuda. A surface trough extends from the 1010 mb low pressure center to 28N60W 23N70W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the south of the trough, and within 330 nm to the north of the trough. A frontal boundary extends from the 1010 mb low pressure center, eastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 26N northward from 53W eastward. The system appears to be acquiring some tropical characteristics, as it separates from the nearby decaying frontal system. It is likely for a short-lived tropical depression or storm to form tonight or on Sunday, if these trends continue. The system is forecast to move slowly, west-northwestward to northwestward, in the central Atlantic Ocean. The system is forecast to turn northward and northeastward, and merge with a strong cold front by the middle of next week. More development is not expected beyond that time. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts that are issued by the National Weather Service. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W, from 17N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 600 nm to the west of the tropical wave. A tropical wave is along 60W/61W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong in clusters is within 180 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 13N to 21N, within 300 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 17N to 21N. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 360 nm to 420 nm on either side of the rest of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of NW Sierra Leone, to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W, to 07N32W 05N41W 04N44W 08N50W 09N55W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 11N southward from 40W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The remnants of Lisa are a 1008 mb low pressure center that is near 21.5N95W. A weakening stationary front passes through south central coastal Louisiana, to the coast of the Deep South of Texas and NE Mexico. A surface trough extends from Jamaica, through NW Cuba, into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, to the Florida Big Bend. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the east and southeast of the weakening stationary front. Moderate to fresh winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are near the 1008 mb low pressure center. Gentle to locally moderate winds, and sea heights that are reaching 5 feet, are to the northwest of the stationary front. Gentle E to SE winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Remnants of Lisa will dissipate over the southwest Gulf tonight. Elsewhere, a stationary front over the northwest Gulf will dissipate through Sun. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten between high pressure building southward over the area and broad low pressure that will approach Florida from the Bahamas starting late Sun. This pattern will result in increasing winds and building seas Mon through Wed over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a 1008 mb low pressure center that is near 17N69W. A broad upper level trough extends from the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea beyond Hispaniola, into the Atlantic Ocean. A surface trough extends from Jamaica, through NW Cuba, into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, to the Florida Big Bend. A tropical wave is along 60W/61W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong in clusters is within 180 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 13N to 21N, within 300 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 17N to 21N. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 360 nm to 420 nm on either side of the rest of the tropical wave. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are in the eastern parts of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, are in the offshore waters of Panama and northwestern Colombia. Gentle NE to E winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are in the rest of the area. Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that ended at 06/0000 UTC, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN, are: 0.52 in Guadeloupe, and 0.25 in Curacao. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 75W in Colombia westward, through Costa Rica/Nicaragua, into the Tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 16N southward from 70W westward. Strong winds and rough seas prevail over the northeast Caribbean. Favorable conditions aloft support the development of broad low pressure near Hispaniola over the next couple of days. This pattern will support strong to near-gale force winds over the Atlantic waters near the Leeward Islands with rough seas into Sun. These conditions will improve through the early part of the week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas will persist through the early and middle portions of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about gale-force winds and a developing weather system, to be moving from the Caribbean Sea into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. A second developing system is a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 32N53W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 12 feet, from the Bahamas northward from 70W westward. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 14 feet to the north of the line that runs from 20N56W beyond 31N22W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from the ITCZ to 15N between the 42W/43W tropical wave and 60W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Strong to near gale-force winds are to the north of the 28N60W 23N70W surface trough from the Bahamas eastward. Mostly fresh, to some strong, winds are from 26N southward between the Cabo Verde Islands and 60W. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. High pressure north of the area will support strong to near gale force easterly winds, mainly north of 27N through tonight. Large NE swell will push southward across the entire area through Sun. Farther south, broad low pressure is expected form north of Hispaniola Sun. Conditions are favorable for a subtropical or tropical depression to form during the early part of next week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward. A tight pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure farther north is expected to lead to a broad area of strong to near-gale force SE winds east of the low, possibly reaching minimal gale force with rough seas north of the Leeward Islands and east of the central Bahamas late Sun and Sun night. Looking ahead, strong to gale force winds and rough seas are possible off northeast Florida from late Mon through mid week as the low pressure shifts northwestward into a strong ridge centered north of the area. $$ mt/al