000 AXNT20 KNHC 052345 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Nov 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The trough is forecast to move northward over the southwestern Atlantic by Sunday, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form north of Hispaniola. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form during the early part of next week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early to middle part of next week. The disturbance is also expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this weekend. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. This system also has a medium chance of development over the next 48 hours and the next 5 days. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W from 17N southward, and moving W around 15 kt. See the monsoon trough/ITCZ portion for information on convection. A western Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles near 59W from 20N southward, and moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 18N between 57W and 61W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough is inland and not over the Atlantic. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 09N40W, then W of a tropical wave near 09N42W to 10N57W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 15N between 21W and 56W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough along with an embedded 1009 mb low near 11N82W are triggering scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms over Panama and northwestern Colombia, S of 13N between 73W and 84W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The remnants of Lisa was located near 21N95W with a central pressure of 1008. Scattered thunderstorms are noted near the low center. Moderate to fresh winds are near the low with seas to 5 ft. A cold front has pushed off the Texas coast and is moving into the NW Gulf, stretching from southeast Texas to northern Mexico. Gentle to locally moderate winds are noted behind the front with seas to 5 ft. A pre-frontal trough is noted from the north-central Gulf from 26N96W to 30N88W with thunderstorms within 75 nm of it. Gentle E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are evident across the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, remnants of Lisa will dissipate over the southwest Gulf this evening. Elsewhere, high pressure over the remainder of the Gulf is shifting eastward ahead of a cold front entering the NW Gulf. The front will stall and dissipate over the northwest Gulf through Sun. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten between high pressure building southward over the area and broad low pressure that will approach Florida from the Bahamas starting late Sun. This pattern will result in increasing winds and building seas Mon through Wed over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad surface to mid-level trough extends northwestward from near the ABC Islands to beyond Haiti. A surface low is analyzed south of Hispaniola near 16N70W with a trough extending from the Windward Passage to 13N69W. Aided by strong divergent flow aloft and this surface low, scattered showers and thunderstorms are found across the eastern basin. This includes the Mona Passage, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are present over the eastern basin. Moderate to locally fresh monsoonal SW winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are evident at the offshore waters of Panama and northwestern Colombia. Gentle NE to E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas prevail over the northeast Caribbean. Favorable conditions aloft support the development of broad low pressure near Hispaniola over the next couple of days. This pattern will support strong to near-gale force winds over the Atlantic waters near the Leeward Islands with rough to very rough seas tonight into Sun. These conditions will improve through the early part of the week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas will persist through the early and middle portions of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an upcoming gale warning over the SW Atlantic. A pronounced upper-level trough curves northeastward from a low over the southeast Bahamas to beyond southeast of Bermuda. Widespread moderate convection is occurring near these features north of 18N between 54W and 74W. Farther east, convergent southerly winds are triggering isolated thunderstorms north of 27N between 44W and 50W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A surface trough extends from a 1012 low near 32N54W to 24N66W. Tight pressure gradient is between the 1031 mb Bermuda High and this system, creating fresh to strong ENE to ESE winds with 9 to 12 ft seas in northerly swell at the western Atlantic north of 25N between 55W and the Georgia- Florida coast. To the south, gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present from 20N to 25N between 55W and the Bahamas. Farther east, the surface ridge related to the 1025 mb Azores High is supporting light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft north of 23N between 30W and 55W. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft seas exist north of 10N between the African coast and 30W. Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to ENE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident from 09N to 20N/23N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, strong high pressure north of the area will support strong to near gale force easterly winds, mainly north of 27N through tonight. Large NE swell will push southward across the entire area through Sun. Farther south, broad low pressure is expected form north of Hispaniola Sun. Conditions are favorable for a subtropical or tropical depression to form during the early part of next week while the system moves generally westward to west- northwestward. A tight pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure farther north is expected to lead to a broad area of strong to near-gale force SE winds east of the low, possibly reaching minimal gale force with very rough seas north of the Leeward Islands and east of the central Bahamas late Sun and Sun night. Looking ahead, strong to gale force winds and very rough seas are possible off northeast Florida from late Mon through mid week as the low pressure shifts northwestward into a strong ridge centered north of the area. $$ AReinhart