000 AXNT20 KNHC 050953 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Nov 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Lisa is centered near 19.8N 95.5W at 05/0900 UTC or 50 nm NE of Veracruz Mexico moving NNW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, with seas to 8 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm NE of the center. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Lisa is expected to become a remnant low today, and dissipate Monday morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning: A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic by the latter part of the weekend. The system is initially expected to be very broad and disorganized. However, it could begin to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics during the early part of next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form during the early to middle portion of next week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early to middle part of next week. A tight pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure farther north is expected to lead to a broad area of strong to near-gale force SE winds east of the low, possibly reaching minimal gale force with very rough seas north of the Leeward Islands and east of the central Bahamas late Sun and Sun night. Looking ahead, strong to gale force winds and rough seas are possible off northeast Florida from late Mon through mid week as the low pressure shifts northwestward into a strong ridge centered north of the area. Localized heavy rainfall is also possible across Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands during the next few days. This system also has a low chance of development over the next 48 hours and a medium chance of development in the next 5 days. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 37W, south of 20N, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate showers are noted near the wave axis. Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 55W, south of 20N, moving W around 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 50W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 09N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ extends from 07N16W to 05N21W to 04N36W. It continues from 04N39W to 09N52W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 25W and 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Tropical Depression Lisa. Outside of T.D. Lisa, high pressure prevails across the Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail across much of the Gulf waters. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Lisa near 19.8N 95.5W 1008 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NNW at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt. Lisa will become a remnant low and move to 20.2N 95.4W this afternoon, 20.4N 95.2W Sun morning, 20.0N 95.2W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. Elsewhere, high pressure over the remainder of the Gulf will shift eastward today. A cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early today, then stall and dissipate through Sun. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten between high pressure building southward over the area and broad low pressure that will approach Florida from the Bahamas starting late Sun. This pattern will result in increasing winds and building seas Mon through Wed over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from Hispaniola to Venezuela. Widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is over the eastern Caribbean east of the trough. Fresh to strong winds are over the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are found over the NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the eastern Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas prevail over the northeast Caribbean. Favorable conditions aloft support the development of broad low pressure in this area over the next couple of days, which will become better organized as it moves into the southwest Atlantic early next week. This pattern will support strong to near-gale force winds over the Atlantic waters near the Leeward Islands with rough to very rough seas tonight into Sun. These conditions will improve through the early part of the week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas will persist through the early and middle portions of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on an upcoming gale warning over the SW Atlantic. An upper level low near the SE Bahamas is supporting a large area of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection S of 25N between 55W and 70W. A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 31N58W, with a trough extending SW to near 25N61W. A surface trough extends from the SE Bahamas across Hispaniola into the Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure north of the area is supporting strong to near- gale force winds north of 27N between 60W and 80W. A large fetch of NE winds are producing seas of 8-12 ft north of 26N and west of 50W. Moderate to fresh winds are found south of 27N and west of 70W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, are found elsewhere north of 20N. South of 20N, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, strong high pressure north of the area will support strong to near gale force easterly winds, mainly north of 27N through tonight. Large NE swell will push southward across the entire area over the weekend. A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic by the latter part of the weekend. The system is initially expected to be very broad and disorganized. However, it could begin to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics during the early part of next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form during the early to middle portion of next week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. A tight pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure farther north is expected to lead to a broad area of strong to near-gale force SE winds east of the low, possibly reaching minimal gale force with very rough seas north of the Leeward Islands and east of the central Bahamas late Sun and Sun night. Looking ahead, strong to gale force winds and rough seas are possible off northeast Florida from late Mon through mid week as the low pressure shifts northwestward into a strong ridge centered north of the area. $$ AL