000 AXNT20 KNHC 050551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Nov 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Lisa is centered near 19.5N 95.5W at 05/0300 UTC or 220 nm WNW of Ciudad Del Carmen Mexico moving N at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. A small area of showers and thunderstorms is occurring NE of the low from 19N to 22N and between 94W and 96W. Seas of 7-9 ft are found near the center. Lisa is expected to have a slow northward motion into early Saturday. Lisa or its remnants are then forecast to stall or drift southward through the remainder of the weekend. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Lisa is expected to become a remnant low by early Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning: A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic by the latter part of the weekend. The system is initially expected to be very broad and disorganized. However, it could begin to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics during the early part of next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form during the early to middle portion of next week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. A tight pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure farther north is expected to lead to a broad area of strong to near-gale force SE winds east of the low, possibly reaching minimal gale force with very rough seas north of the Leeward Islands and east of the central Bahamas late Sun and Sun night. Looking ahead, strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas are possible off northeast Florida from late Mon through mid week as the low pressure shifts northwestward into a strong ridge centered north of the area. Localized heavy rainfall is also possible across Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands during the next few days. This system also has a low chance of development over the next 48 hours and a medium chance of development in the next 5 days. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W, south of 20N, moving W at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W, south of 20N, moving W around 10-15 knots. Widely scattered showers to isolated thunderstorms are noted from 09N to 19N and between 50W and 59W. The tropical wave previously assessed over the central Caribbean Sea has been absorbed into the surface trough extending from the SE Bahamas to northern Venezuela. For more details, please read the Caribbean Sea section below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 06N14W. The ITCZ extends from 06N14W to 03N35W and then from 03N39W to 10N54W. A few showers are observed near the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough stretches from the Colombia coast near 11N74W to the coast of Costa Rica near 11N83W. Isolated to scattered showers are occurring in the SW Caribbean in association with these boundary. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Tropical Depression Lisa. Outside the influence of T.D. Lisa, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are present in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to afternoon and evening convection that developed over the Yucatan peninsula and progressed westward during the last few hours. The remainder of the Gulf is dominated by a strong high pressure system positioned between Bermuda and Nova Scotia, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressures associated with Lisa and an approaching cold front over Texas support moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic winds across the Gulf. Seas are 3-6 ft in the Gulf, with the highest seas off the coast of Texas. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Lisa near 19.5N 95.5W 1008 mb at 11 PM EDT moving N at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt. Lisa will become a remnant low and move to 20.0N 95.5W Sat morning, 20.1N 95.3W Sat evening, 19.9N 95.2W Sun morning, 19.6N 95.2W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. Elsewhere, high pressure over the remainder of the Gulf will shift eastward through Sat. A cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf late into Sat, then stall and dissipate through Sun. Looking ahead, the pressure gradient is expected to tighten between high pressure building southward over the area and broad low pressure that will approach Florida from the Bahamas starting late Sun. This pattern will result in increasing winds and building seas Mon through Wed over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from southern Hispaniola to NW Hispaniola and divergence aloft result a large area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms east of the trough axis. Moderate to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 4-7 ft are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 2-5 ft are found in the NW Caribbean and the Windward Passage. Moderate to locally SW winds and seas of 2-4 ft are noted south of the monsoon trough. In the rest of the Caribbean, light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas prevail over the northeast Caribbean. Favorable conditions aloft support the development of broad low pressure in this area over the next couple of days, which will become better organized as it moves into the southwest Atlantic early next week. This pattern will support strong to near-gale force winds over the Atlantic waters near the Leeward Islands with rough to very rough seas Sat night into Sun. These conditions will improve through the early part of the week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas will persist through the early and middle portions of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong upper level low near the SE Bahamas is interacting with a surface trough that extends from 24N72W to the eastern Caribbean and into Venezuela. The result is a large area of widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms S of 25N and W of 55W. Another surface trough extends from the coast of South Carolina to just off Florida and into the NW Bahamas. However, this boundary is only producing scattered shallow showers. Moderate to strong easterly winds are depicted in the latest scatterometer satellite pass N of 24N and W of 55W, with the strongest winds occurring N of 27N. Seas of 8 ft or greater are noted N of 25N and W of 55W, with seas at or greater than 12 ft are present N of 27N. A recent altimeter satellite pass captured seas up to 14 ft near 28N69W and up to 15 ft near 29N60W. In the rest of the western tropical Atlantic (W of 55W), moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. A 1015 mb low pressure near 31N52W is producing showers and thunderstorms, mainly north and northeast of the center. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions outside of the deep tropics. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are evident south of a line from the Canary Islands to the Leeward Islands. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast W of 55W, strong high pressure building north of the area will support strong to near gale force easterly winds, mainly north of 27N through Sat night. Large NE swell will push southward across the entire area over the weekend. A large non- tropical low pressure system is expected to develop across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic by the latter part of the weekend. The system is initially expected to be very broad and disorganized. However, it could begin to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics during the early part of next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form during the early to middle portion of next week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. A tight pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure farther north is expected to lead to a broad area of strong to near-gale force SE winds east of the low, possibly reaching minimal gale force with very rough seas north of the Leeward Islands and east of the central Bahamas late Sun and Sun night. Looking ahead, strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas are possible off northeast Florida from late Mon through mid week as the low pressure shifts northwestward into a strong ridge centered north of the area. $$ DELGADO