000 AXNT20 KNHC 041804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Nov 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression (TD) Lisa is centered near 19.1N 94.6W at 04/1500 UTC or 160 nm W of Ciudad Del Carmen, Mexico and moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas across the southwestern Bay of Campeche are peaking at 6 to 8 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over the SW Gulf, within 130 nm of the center. Local flash flooding remains possible across portions of southeastern Mexico. T.D. Lisa is forecast to briefly become a tropical storm this evening, then start a weakening trend Sat morning. Lisa is expected to slow down and drift northward on Sat, then become quasi-stationary by Sat night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 16N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen from 03N to 09N between 34W and 37W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 17N southward, and moving westward around 15 knots. Widely scattered showers are noted from 02N to 04N between 42W and 47W, and from 08N to 11N between 45W and 49W. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from the Dominican Republic southward to northwestern Venezuela, and moving westward around 10 kt. Aided by divergent winds aloft, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted across the eastern Caribbean Basin, including the Mona Passage, Puerto Rico, the Lesser Antilles and Virgin Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-Bissau coast near Bissau to 09N23W. Isolated thunderstorms are present up to 80 nm south of the trough between 21W and 23W. An ITCZ in three segments, continues from 09N23W to 10N34W, then from 10N37W to 09N48W and from 09N51W to just southeast of Trinidad and Tobago. Scattered moderate convection is evident near and up to 80 nm north of the first and third ITCZ segments. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Panama and northwester Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Tropical Depression (TD) Lisa. Outside the influence of T.D. Lisa, a surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1028 mb high over the Mid-Atlantic U.S. States across the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are seen over the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, T.D. Lisa will strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.8N 95.2W this evening, then weaken to a tropical depression near 20.6N 95.4W Sat morning, and eventually become a remnant low near 20.6N 95.2W Sat evening. It will drift to 20.3N 95.1W Sun morning and dissipate Sun evening. Elsewhere, high pressure over the remainder of the Gulf will shift eastward through Sat. A cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf late tonight into Sat. The front will reach the central Gulf Sun and weaken. The pressure gradient is expected to tighten between high pressure building southward into the Gulf and broad low pressure that will approach Florida from the Bahamas starting late Sun, leading to fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for weather in the Caribbean Basin. Moderate to fresh SE trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present over the eastern basin. Light to gentle monsoonal winds with 2 to 3 ft seas are found at the southwestern corner of the basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, a large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop this weekend across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic. The system is expected to initially be very broad and disorganized, but environmental conditions could support gradual subtropical or tropical development beginning early next week while it moves generally northwestward or westward over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, strong winds and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across most of the NE Caribbean tonight through Sat night. Strong winds are also expected Sat through Sun night in the southwestern Caribbean associated with low pressure forecast to develop along the eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough. The low is expected to move northeastward toward the NE Caribbean by late Mon while weakening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad surface trough runs north-northwestward from the southeast Bahamas to beyond 31N at 77W. In the vicinity, a pronounced upper-level trough reaches southwestward from a low just southeast of Bermuda across 31N62W to eastern Cuba. Interaction between these features are generating scattered showers and thunderstorms from the southeast Bahamas northward to 30N between 65W and 74W. Farther east, another surface trough near 28N44W is coupling with divergent flow aloft to produce scattered moderate convection north of 24N between 37W and 49W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Tight pressure gradient between a 1031 mb high off the northeastern U.S. and a broad 1014 mb low south of Bermuda near 28N58W is leading to fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas at 9 to 13 ft in northerly swell north of 27N between 56W and 70W. To the west, moderate to fresh NE to E winds with 5 to 8 ft seas are present north of 24N between 70W and the Georgia-Florida coast. At the central Atlantic, a 1026 mb Azores High is supporting gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft north of 25N between 30W and 56W. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE trades and seas at 4 to 7 ft are found from the Cabo Verde Islands northward to beyond 31N between the African coast and 30W. Further south, gentle to moderate NE to E trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are present from 09N to 25N/27N between the central African coast and Lesser Antilles/70W. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, a dissipating stationary front extending from 25N66W to 28N74W will weaken further to a trough today. Strong high pressure building north of the area will lead to strong to near gale force easterly winds across the northern waters, mainly north of 27N through Sat night. Large NE swell will push southward across the entire area over the weekend. Looking ahead, a large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop this weekend across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic. The system is expected to initially be very broad and disorganized, but environmental conditions could support gradual subtropical or tropical development beginning early next week while it moves generally northwestward or westward over the southwestern Atlantic. A tight pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure to its north is expected to lead to a broad area of strong NE to E winds over most of the northern and western waters N of the Bahamas early next week. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible over offshore Atlantic waters of Florida Tue and Tue night. $$ Chan