000 AXNT20 KNHC 031750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Nov 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Lisa has weakened to a Tropical Depression but it is still bringing heavy rains to portions of southeastern Mexico. At 03/1500 UTC, Lisa is centered near 18.0N 91.0W or 60 nm SE of Ciudad Del Carmen Mexico moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Most of the convective activity is to the north of the center affecting the Yucatan Peninsula. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will continue to move over southeastern Mexico today and tonight, and move into the Bay of Campeche on Friday. Additional weakening is forecast, and Lisa is not expected to re-intensify when the center reaches the Bay of Campeche. Lisa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northwestern Chiapas, and far eastern Veracruz. Rainfall is expected to continue to diminish across Belize, northern Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula today. Additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible across these areas. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions, especially across portions of southeastern Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Large and powerful Marin is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone over the central north Atlantic within the next few hours. At 03/1500, Hurricane Martin is centered near 45.6N 37.9W or 660 nm NW of the Azores moving NE at 42 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate convection is within about 90 nm NE semicircle of center. Martin is moving toward the northeast. A turn toward the north at a slightly slower forward speed is expected this evening. Martin's forward motion is forecast to slow down substantially on Friday. A general east to east-southeastward motion is then forecast by Friday night, which will likely continue through the weekend. Martin's peak sustained winds will likely begin to decrease on Friday, but it will continue to produce strong winds over a very large area well into the weekend. Swells generated by Martin when it become a post-tropical cyclone will likely spread across a large portion of the high-latitude North Atlantic basin, affecting portions of Atlantic Canada, the Azores, and the Atlantic coast of Europe by the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products form your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details on Hurricane Martin. Also refer to the High Seas forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center for continuing updates after Martin becomes extratropical and the NHC advisories cease. https://www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 65W, S of 19N, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along the wave axis and also over north-central Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08.5N13W to 08N28W to 07N42W to 05N52W. A surface trough is analyzed within the ITCZ and runs from 11N27W to 05N29W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over a large area from 03N to 10N between 16W and 44W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about T.D. Lisa located over southeastern Mexico. Lisa is not expected to re-intensify when the center reaches the Bay of Campeche. A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms, associated with the circulation of Lisa, is affecting parts of the Yucatan peninsula and the eastern Bay of Campeche. Similar convective activity is also noted near 24.5N88W, and near 21N95W. A ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing gentle to moderate Ne to E winds and seas of 2-4 ft based on altimeter data and buoys observations. For the forecast, Lisa will continue inland and track to the northwest tonight and emerge out over over the the Bay of Campeche near 18.9N 94.2W Fri morning. Lisa is forecast to continue northwest to near 19.8N 95.1W Fri evening, to near 20.5N 95.3W Sat morning, then southeast to near 20.2N 95.0W Sat evening, and weaken to a remnant low and move to 19.8N 94.9W Sun morning. Lisa will dissipate early Mon. Otherwise, high pressure over the remainder of the Gulf will shift eastward through Sat in response to a cold front that is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri night into Sat. Fresh to strong southerly flow will develop over the far western Gulf Fri and Fri night ahead of the cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms, associated with the outer circulation of T.D. Lisa, are still observed the NW Caribbean. Convection has increased over the SW Caribbean where a 1008 mb low pressure is observed along the EPAC monsoon trough near 10N80W. This convective activity covers the waters S of 13N between 76W and 84W affecting most of Panama and Costa Rica. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean generating some shower activity. Elsewhere, patches of low level moisture with embedded showers are noted. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh trades across most of the E and central Caribbean, including the Windward passage. An area of fresh to strong winds is seen over the south- central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia. gentle to moderate winds prevail in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 5-8 ft in the central Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a complex, large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop this weekend over the northeastern Caribbean sea and southwestern Atlantic. The system is expected to initially be very broad and disorganized, but environmental conditions could support gradual subtropical or tropical development beginning early next week while it moves generally northward or northwestward. Regardless of development, strong winds along scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across most of the NE Caribbean Fri night through Sat night. Strong winds are also expected Sat through Sun night in the southwestern Caribbean associated with low pressure forecast to develop in the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about Hurricane Martin, forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone over the central north Atlantic within the next few hours. A cold front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure located near 31N58W to 26.5N66W to 30N78W followed by moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft on a building trend. A band of low clouds, with possible showers, is associated with the front while disorganized showers and thunderstorms are related to the low center. Conditions are more favorable ahead of the front with gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N48W to 22N61W. A well defined 90 nm wide- band of moderate convection is ahead of this trough stretching from 31N45W to 20N55W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are ahead of this band of clouds. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, with a 1026 mb center situated W of the Madeira Islands near 32N23W Gentle to moderate wind and 4-6 ft seas are under the influence of this high pressure. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will merge with a reinforcing cold front today and then weaken into a frontal trough on Fri. Strong high pressure north of the area and in the wake of the front will lead to strong to near gale force easterly winds across the northern waters, mainly north of 27N today through Sat night. Large northeast swell following the front will push southward across the entire area over the weekend. Looking ahead, a large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop this weekend over the northeastern Caribbean sea and southwestern Atlantic. The system is expected to initially be very broad and disorganized, but environmental conditions could support gradual subtropical or tropical development beginning early next week while it moves generally northward or northwestward. As previously mentioned, disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a weak non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for slow subtropical or tropical development of this system during the next few days as it moves slowly southward today and then turns westward by the weekend. The disturbance is expected to merge with a larger system developing to its southwest by the end of the weekend and further development is not anticipated at that time. $$ GR