004 AXNT20 KNHC 031021 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Nov 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lisa is centered near 17.8N 90.1W at 03/0900 UTC or 110 nm W of Belize City moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate convection is inland the Yucatan Peninsula with scattered showers and tstms happening over the NW Caribbean and the Bay of Campeche. Lisa's westward motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, bringing the center of Lisa across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico. After that time, a turn to the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected as Lisa moves over the Bay of Campeche. Additional weakening is forecast while the center remains over land, and Lisa is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today. Lisa is not expected to re-intensify once the center reaches the Bay of Campeche. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Hurricane Martin is centered near 41.9N 41.4W at 03/0900 UTC or 700 nm WNW of the Azores moving NNE at 40 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate convection is N of 40N between 35W and 46W. A turn to the north is expected to occur later today taking Martin over the far North Atlantic. A reduction in forward speed and a turn to the east or east-southeast is then forecast on Friday. Martin should continue to grow larger and slightly stronger today when it transitions into a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to gradually lose strength through the weekend, but remain very large. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details on Hurricane Martin. Also refer to the High Seas forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center for continuing updates after Martin becomes extratropical and the NHC advisories cease. https://www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 63W, from 07N to 17N, moving west at 5 kts. Isolated weak convection is observed behind the wave from 10N to 15N, between 55W and 62W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from northern Guinea near 11N15W to 05N48W. An upper level low in the central Atlantic, combined with aboundant tropical moisture, is helping support a large area of scattered moderate convection from 03N to 11N, between 21W and 46W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about Tropical Storm Lisa. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the outer circulation of Lisa are observed in the Bay of Campeche. Winds are beginning to increase as Lisa approaches the southern Gulf, though the system is losing strength quickly while inland. The majority of the basin is currently dominated by moderate easterly winds and 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lisa near 17.6N 89.1W 991 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 75 kt. Lisa will move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 17.7N 90.6W Thu morning, inland to 18.1N 92.5W Thu evening, inland to 18.8N 94.1W Fri morning, 19.6N 94.9W Fri evening, 20.2N 95.2W Sat morning, and 20.2N 95.0W Sat evening. Lisa will become a remnant low as it moves near 19.5N 94.7W late Sun. High pressure will dominate the remainder basin producing mainly moderate NE to E winds through Thu. Otherwise, southerly return flow is expected to strengthen over the NW Gulf Thu night through Fri night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Fri night into Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about Tropical Storm Lisa in the far NW Caribbean near the coast of Belize. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the outer circulation of Lisa are observed through the majority of the basin west of 80W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted across the basin. A recent scatterometer pass also found fresh NE winds through the Windward Passage. Seas are 6-8 ft in the central Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lisa near 17.6N 89.1W 991 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 75 kt. Lisa will move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 17.7N 90.6W Thu morning, inland to 18.1N 92.5W Thu evening, inland to 18.8N 94.1W Fri morning, 19.6N 94.9W Fri evening, 20.2N 95.2W Sat morning, and 20.2N 95.0W Sat evening. Winds and seas associated with Lisa will diminish over the NW Caribbean tonight. Looking ahead, a complex, non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend over the NE Caribbean Sea or the SW N Atlantic. Some slow subtropical or tropical development of this system is possible afterward while it moves generally N to NW through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about Hurricane Martin. A cold front extends across the western subtropical Atlantic from 31N62W to 30N74W. Scatterometer data observed fresh northerly winds behind the front, which increase with latitude north of the discussion area. Seas are currently 5-7 ft, on a building trend. Conditions are more favorable ahead of the front with gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N51W to 20N57W. Scattered moderate convection is observed east of the trough, from 19N to 31N, between 44W and 54W. Satellite observations indicate moderate to fresh SW wind and 8-10 ft seas in this area, on an abating trend as Hurricane Martin moves quickly NE. High pressure dominates the eastern Atlantic, with gentle to moderate E-NE wind and 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, a cold front extending from 31N61W to 29N65W will weaken into a frontal trough on Fri. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will bring strong to near gale force easterly winds across the N waters, mainly N of 27N, late Thu through Sat night. Large NE swell following the front will push southward across the entire area over the weekend. Looking ahead, a complex, non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend over the NE Caribbean Sea or the SW N Atlantic. Some slow subtropical or tropical development of this system is possible afterward while it moves generally N to NW through early next week. $$ Ramos