000 AXNT20 KNHC 021748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Nov 02 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Lisa is centered near 17.3N 87.7W at 02/1800 UTC or 30 nm ESE of Belize City moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Hurricane force wind speeds are within 10 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 10 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm force winds are within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 20 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 75 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are reaching 24 feet. The wind speeds are ranging from 20 knots to 33 knots, and the sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, elsewhere within 120 nm of the center, except within 60 nm SW quadrant of the center. Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong is from 16N to the Yucatan Channel between 82W and the central sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 16N northward from the Windward Passage westward. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. Hurricane Martin is centered near 35.5N 50.0W at 02/1500 UTC or 1110 nm W of the Azores moving ENE at 23 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 30N to 40N between 40W and 60W. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 61W/62W, from 18N southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 16N southward between 57W and 67W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 10N19W. The ITCZ continues from 10N19W, to 09N22W 09N24W 07N30W 05N36W 04N41W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 02N to 10N between 27W and 37W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 13N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the SW Yucatan Peninsula, to the coastal waters of Mexico, to the coastal waters of SW Louisiana. Precipitation: rainshowers are from 90W westward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 24N northward from 92W eastward. Some fresh ENE winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 6 feet, are near the Texas coast. Moderate winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 4 feet, are in the SE corner. Gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 3 feet, are in the remainder of the area. A trough located along the coast of Texas will dissipate by tonight. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate the basin producing mainly moderate NE to E winds through Thu. Hurricane Lisa will make landfall in Belize later today, and then cross northern Guatemala and move into southeastern Mexico by Thursday while weakening to a tropical depression. Then, it is forecast to emerge into the Bay of Campeche by Fri morning, where it will meander through Mon, producing winds up to 30 kt and seas to 9 ft. Southerly return flow is expected to strengthen over the NW Gulf Thu night through Fri night ahead of a cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf on Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Hurricane LISA. Moderate to fresh trade winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are in most of the areas of the Caribbean Sea. The exception is the range from 6 feet to 8 feet off the coast of Colombia. The conditions are more favorable in the far SW Caribbean, with light to gentle winds and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet. Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that ended at 02/1200 UTC, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN, are: 0.32 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.20 in Guadeloupe, and 0.15 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, 0.10 in St.Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, 0.08 in Curacao, and 0.07 in Kingston in Jamaica. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, from 74W in Colombia westward, through Panama and Costa Rica, into the Tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 16N southward from 75W westward, away from the Hurricane Lisa precipitation. Hurricane Lisa near 17.2N 87.4W 987 mb at 11 AM EDT moving W at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Lisa will move inland to 17.3N 88.8W this evening, and weaken to a tropical storm near 17.5N 90.7W Thu morning, and to a tropical depression near 17.8N 92.5W Thu evening. Winds and seas will diminish over the NW Caribbean in about 24 hours as Lisa remains inland and W of area. Moderate to fresh trade winds are forecast elsewhere through Thu. Looking ahead, a complex, broad area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend near the Greater Antilles or over the southwestern Atlantic. Some slow subtropical or tropical development of this system is possible afterward while it moves generally northward to northwestward. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Hurricane Martin. An Atlantic Ocean cold front ends near 31N80W. The rest of the cold front is to the north of the area. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is between the 28N54W-to the NE Caribbean Sea surface trough and the cold front that is to the north of the area. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 29N73W. The wind speeds range from light to gentle, increasing to moderate to fresh near and to the south of the Bahamas. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet. A surface trough is along 28N54W 20N61W, through the NE Caribbean Sea, to 14N66W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong is within 390 nm to the east of the surface trough. Fresh westerly winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 9 feet, related to Hurricane Martin, are reaching as far to the south as 30N in the central Atlantic Ocean between 46W and 60W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation cover the Atlantic Ocean from 13N northward from 50W eastward. A surface ridge passes through 31N21W, to 26N45W. Light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are near the ridge. Fresh trade winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 7 feet, are from the ITCZ to 18N between 40W and 60W. A surface trough extending from 31N52W to 23N58W will drift E through today. A cold front will reach the N waters late this afternoon, then extend from 31N56W to 27N67W to 29N80W by Thu morning. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will bring strong to near gale force easterly winds across the N waters, mainly N of 27N, Thu night through Sat night. Large NE swell following the front will push southward across the entire area over the weekend. Looking ahead, a complex, broad area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend near the Greater Antilles or over the southwestern Atlantic. Some slow subtropical or tropical development of this system is possible afterward while it moves generally northward to northwestward. $$ mt/gr