000 AXNT20 KNHC 020400 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Nov 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lisa is centered near 16.8N 84.7W at 02/0300 UTC or 110 nm E of Isla Roatan Honduras moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are currently 16 ft in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is observed from 14N to 23N, between 74W and 88W. Lisa is moving toward the west and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will move near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wed, move near Belize late on Wed and over southeastern Mexico on Thu. Further strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to become a hurricane overnight over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and continue to intensify on Wed as it approaches Belize. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions primarily across Belize into northern Guatemala, the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas and the far southeast portion of the Yucatan peninsula. Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Central America during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Martin is centered near 35.1N 53.4W at 02/0300 UTC or 590 nm ENE of Bermuda moving E at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently estimated at 19 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is observed from 35N to 37N, between 51W and 55W. Martin is moving toward the east and anticipated to turn toward the northeast at a faster rate of forward speed during the next two days. Martin is expected to become a hurricane by Wed afternoon or night before transitioning to a powerful extratropical system on Thu. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 60W, from 07N to 18N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 13N, between 53W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 10N18W. The ITCZ continues from 10N18W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the monsoon trough from 09N to 11N, between 12W and 15W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along and south of the ITCZ from 03N to 08N, between 25W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough in the western Gulf has been supporting strong NE winds along the Texas coast for the last 18 hours or so. Somewhat surprisingly, a buoy 60 nm SSE of Corpus Christi, TX reported significant wave heights of 11 ft earlier tonight, which have since abated to 9 ft. Outside of the NW Gulf, the gradient between high pressure over the SE US and lower pressure in southern Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate E-NE winds across the basin with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, a trough situated just offshore the coast of Texas will continue to produce fresh to strong NE to E winds through this evening. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate the basin producing mainly moderate NE to E winds through Thu. Southerly return flow is expected to strengthen over the NW Gulf toward the end of the work-week, ahead of a possible cold front entering the far W Gulf over the weekend. Looking ahead, the forecast track of tropical cyclone Lisa brings the system into the SW Gulf Fri night and Sat as a tropical depression. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details about Tropical Storm Lisa in the NW Caribbean. Outside of impacts from Lisa, moderate to fresh trades are observed through the majority of the basin with 4-6 ft seas. Conditions are more favorable in the SW Caribbean, with light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lisa near 16.7N 83.3W 1000 mb at 5 PM EDT moving W at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Lisa will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.0N 85.0W Wed morning, move to 17.2N 87.2W Wed afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 17.3N 88.9W Thu morning, inland to 17.3N 90.4W Thu afternoon, and weaken to a tropical depression near 17.6N 91.9W Fri morning, and inland to 18.4N 93.4W Fri afternoon. Lisa will change little in intensity as it moves W of area to near 19.8N 94.2W Sat afternoon. With the exception of light to gentle variable winds in the SW Caribbean, moderate to locally fresh trade winds are forecast elsewhere through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details about Tropical Storm Martin. A surface trough extends from 31N77W to 24N78W. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the western Atlantic. Winds are light to gentle, increasing to moderate near and south of the Bahamas. Seas are generally 4-6 ft. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 29N51W to 22N56W. Scattered moderate convection associated with this trough is observed from 24N to 31N, between 48W and 55W. Fresh westerly winds seas in excess of 8 ft associated with Tropical Storm Martin are reaching as far south as 30N in the west central Atlantic. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas dominate the central and eastern Atlantic. For the forecast, a surface trough extending from 31N52W to 22N65W will move across the NE waters through Wed. Another cold front will reach the N waters by Wed afternoon. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will bring strong easterly winds across the N waters, mainly N of 27N, Thu night through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will persist in the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of the Windward Passage through Thu. $$ Flynn