000 AXNT20 KNHC 011053 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Nov 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lisa is centered near 16.0N 81.5W at 01/0900 UTC or 200 nm SSE of Grand Cayman moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently 14 ft in the NE quadrant. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the storm center. Lisa is expected to maintain a steady westward track over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will pass near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wed and approach Belize late Wed. Strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to become a hurricane on Wed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Peak seas are forecast to build to 24 ft on Wed. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, starting late Tue continuing through Thu. There is potential for a dangerous storm surge near where the core of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 370 nm ENE of Bermuda near 35N58W. Recent satellite based observations found an area of gale force winds and seas to 15 ft NW of the low. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become better organized overnight. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and the system is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm within the next day or so while it moves generally east-northeastward. By late Wed night or early Thu, the system is expected to become fully extratropical and merge with a larger non-tropical low over the north-central Atlantic. The current NHC Tropical Weather Outlook assigns a high probability of formation through the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends along 58W, from 05N to 20N, moving west at about 5 knots. No significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 08N14W. The ITCZ continues from 08N14W to 03N37W to 01S45W. An upper level low combined with a large area of deep tropical moisture is supporting scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 01N to 09N, between 05W and 40W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 00N-19N between 05W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend near 29N83W to 27N85.5W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 27N85.5W to 25N89W. A surface trough is located in the W Gulf from 28.5N95.5W to 24N97.5W. This trough is triggering scattered moderate convection over the NW Gulf, north of 24N and west of 91W. Winds are moderate to fresh from the E-SE in the western Gulf with 3-5 ft seas. In the eastern Gulf, winds are gentle to moderate from the N-E with 1-3 ft seas. For the forecast, the cold front will become stationary later today through early Wed before moving east of the basin as a weak cold front Wed night. The trough offshore Texas will persist today, inducing fresh to locally strong winds in the Texas offshore waters through this evening. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate the basin producing mainly moderate NE to E winds through Thu. SE to S return flow is expected to strengthen over the NW Gulf toward the end of the work-week, ahead of a possible cold front entering the far W Gulf over the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Lisa in the western Caribbean Sea. Outside of the direct impacts from Tropical Storm Lisa, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 65W and 75W. Winds are moderate to fresh from the east in the eastern Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas. Moderate winds are observed elsewhere with 2-5 ft seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lisa will move to near 16.4N 83.9W Tue evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.8N 86.3W Wed morning before moving inland near Belize Wed evening. Lisa will weaken to a remnant low Thu evening well inland near 16.8N 91.2W. With the exception of light to gentle variable winds in the SW Caribbean, moderate to locally fresh trade winds are forecast elsewhere through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 31N55W to 26N67W. A pre-frontal surface trough extends from 31N52W to 26N59W. A line of moderate thunderstorms is located within 60 nm of the surface trough axis. Fresh W winds are W of the trough axis to about 63W, north of 28N. Seas are 7-9 ft in this area. Farther west, ridging is leading to gentle winds west of 67W and north of 26N, where seas are 5-7 ft in NE swell. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are occurring through the SE and central Bahamas, south of 25N west of 70W. Farther E, a surface ridge axis extends from near 31N31W to 1022 mb high pressure centered near 29N37W to 24N48W to 24N62W to 28N71W. Light to gentle winds and 5-6 ft seas are near the ridge axis. Farther south, fresh trade winds and 6-8 ft seas extend north of the ITCZ to 18N, between 35W-60W. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from 31N55W to 26N67W will move eastward and dissipate tonight, then continue moving east across the NE waters as a surface trough through Thu. Another cold front will reach the N waters by Wed afternoon. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will bring strong easterly winds across the N waters, mainly N of 27N, Thu night through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will persist in the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of the Windward Passage through Thu. $$ Hagen