000 AXNT20 KNHC 010552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Nov 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lisa is centered near 15.8N 79.8W at 01/0600 UTC or 225 nm SSE of Grand Cayman moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently 14 ft in the NE quadrant. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the storm center. Lisa is expected to maintain a steady westward track over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will pass near or just north of the Bay Islands of Honduras overnight Tuesday and across Belize by late Wednesday. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lisa is expected to become a hurricane on Wed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, starting late Tue continuing through Thu. There is potential for a dangerous storm surge near where the core of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 370 nm northeast of Bermuda near 35N58W. Recent satellite based observations found an area of gale force winds and seas to 15 ft NW of the low. Shower and thunderstrom activity has continued to persist near and to the north of the center of the low overnight. Some additional development is possible through late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and the system could become a tropical or subtropical storm while it moves generally east-northeastward. By early Thursday, the system is expected to become fully extratropical and merge with a larger non-tropical low over the north-central Atlantic. The current Tropical Weather Outlook assigns a medium probability of formation through both 48 hours and 5 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends along 57W, from 05N to 20N, moving west at about 5 knots. No significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 09N17W. The ITCZ continues from 09N17W to 01S48W. An upper level low combined with a large area of deep tropical moisture is supporting isolated moderate convection from 01N to 15N, between 15W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front extends across the Gulf of Mexico, from near Apalachicola, Florida to the SW Gulf near 22N95W. A surface trough in the western Gulf is triggering scattered moderate convection from 24N to 27N, between 95W and 98W. Winds are moderate to fresh from the E-SE in the western Gulf with 2-4 ft seas. In the eastern Gulf, winds are gentle to moderate from the N-E with 1-3 ft seas. For the forecast, a stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend near 30N84W to 23N90W. The front will lift N through Tue before dissipating. A trough will form just offshore Texas on Tue, inducing fresh to locally strong winds in the Texas offshore waters through Tue night. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate the basin producing mainly moderate NE to E winds through Thu. Southerly return flow is expected to strengthen over the NW Gulf toward the end of the work-week, ahead of a possible cold front entering the W Gulf over the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Lisa in the Central Caribbean Sea. Outside of the direct impacts from Tropical Storm Lisa, widely isolated convection is observed in the central and eastern Caribbean. Winds are moderate to fresh from the east in the eastern Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas. Moderate winds are observed elsewhere with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lisa is near 15.6N 79.1W 1002 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Lisa will move to near 16.4N 83.9W Tue evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.8N 86.3W Wed morning before moving inland near Belize Wed evening. Lisa will weaken to a remnant low Thu evening well inland near 16.8N 91.2W. With the exception of light to gentle variable winds in the SW Caribbean, moderate to locally fresh trade winds are forecast elsewhere through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 31N55W to 27N68W. A few showers and thunderstorms are observed along and within 120 nm ahead of the front. Recent satellite-based observations found moderate to fresh westerly winds behind the front with 7-9 ft seas in northerly swell. Winds and seas are higher north of 31N. Conditions are moderate ahead of the front. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a subtropical ridge extending SW from the Azores to roughly 25N60W. Winds are light to gentle within the ridge, gradually increasing to moderate NE-E winds south of the ridge. Seas are in the 4-8 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N55W to 27N68W. The cold front will move eastward across the NE waters through Wed while dissipating. Then, a frontal trough will persist moving SE through Thu. Another cold front will reach the N waters on Thu. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong easterly winds across the N waters, mainly N of 27N through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will persist in the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of the Windward Passage through Thu. $$ Flynn