000 AXNT20 KNHC 312106 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Nov 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lisa is centered near 15.5N 78.4W at 31/2100 UTC or 280 nm SE of Grand Cayman moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently 13-14 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm in the southeast semicircle with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within 150 nm in the northwest semicircle. Lisa is moving toward the west and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will pass south of Jamaica today, south of the Cayman Islands tomorrow, then move near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early on Wed and approach Belize later on Wed. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lisa is forecast to become a hurricane on Wed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, starting late Tue continuing through Thu. There is potential for a dangerous storm surge near where the core of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis along 57W, south of 20N to near the border of Guyana and Suriname, moving west at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent, entering the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 08N15W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N15W to 06N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture sustains scattered moderate convection from 02N to 14N and between 30W and 56W, with similar convection from 04N to 09N between 14W and 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front is draped across the Gulf of Mexico, extending from near Apalachicola, Florida to the SW Gulf near 21N95W. Shallow showers are present near the frontal boundary. A weak surface trough is found near the coast of Mexico from 18N94W to 24N98W and it is also generating a few showers, with even some isolated thunderstorms noted from 23N to 24N between 95W and 97W. The rest of the basin is under a dry environmental that maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds and 2-4 ft seas are from 22N to 26N west of 94W. Gentle to moderate NE-E winds and 2-4 ft seas are elsewhere west of the front, with light to gentle NE-E winds and 2-3 ft seas east of the front. For the forecast, the front will lift north through Tue before dissipating. A trough will form just offshore Texas on Tue, inducing fresh winds in the Texas offshore waters through Tue night. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate the basin producing mainly moderate NE to E winds. Southerly return flow is expected to increase over the NW Gulf toward the end of the work-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Lisa in the Central Caribbean Sea. Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Lisa, isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the south-central and southeast Caribbean, as well as from Puerto Rico to the Dominican Republic. Only shallow, isolated showers are found in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds are occurring in the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Moderate easterly winds are also noted in the lee of Cuba, with fresh to locally strong easterly winds between Cuba and Jamaica due to Lisa located to the south. Gentle to moderate winds are present across the remainder of the basin. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. For the forecast, Lisa will move to 15.7N 80.2W Tue morning, 16.2N 82.8W Tue afternoon, 16.7N 85.4W Wed morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.0N 87.6W Wed afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 16.9N 89.3W Thu morning, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 16.9N 90.9W Thu afternoon. Lisa will become a remnant low as it moves to near 17.5N 93.0W Fri afternoon. Elsewhere, with the exception of light to gentle variable winds in the SW Caribbean, moderate to locally fresh trade winds are forecast elsewhere through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 31N60W to 28N70W while a surface trough is seen from 31N56W to 24N64W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found north of 25N and between 53W and 60W. Moderate to locally fresh westerly winds are occurring north of 27N and between 54W and 65W. Seas of 6-9 ft in NE swell are found north of 29N between 54W and 72W. The highest seas are found near 31N67W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive 1021 mb subtropical high positioned near 28N39W, supporting fairly tranquil weather conditions. One exception is from 10N to 13N between 50W and 55W where fresh to strong winds and 6-8 ft seas are noted due to a perturbation along the ITCZ. Elsewhere the pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of a line from the Canary Islands to the NE Leeward Islands. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail across the remainder of the open Atlantic waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move across the NE waters through Wed while dissipating. Then, a frontal trough will persist moving SE through Thu. Another cold front will reach the N waters on Thu. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong easterly winds across the N waters, mainly north of 27N through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will persist in the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of the Windward Passage through Thu. $$ Lewitsky