000 AXNT20 KNHC 302204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Oct 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly developed Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen is centered near 15.7N 73.6W at 30/2100 UTC, or 230 nm SE of Kingston Jamaica moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident with 75 nm of the center of PTC Fifteen. The strongest winds along with rough seas are evident within 150 nm to the north of the center, south of Haiti. PTC Fifteen is expected gradually intensify as it continues to move WNW for the next day or so, then continue intensify possibly to hurricane strength as it moves more westward through late Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W from 18N southward, moving westward from 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 45W and 48W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 10N13W to 09N22W to 07N30W to 07N48W. The monsoon trough extends across the far southwest Caribbean from 11N75W to 10N83W. Scattered moderate from 06N to 09N between 55W and 58W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front reaches from northern Gulf coast near the Florida/Alabama border southwestward toward 22N90W, then is stationary to Veracruz, Mexico. Mostly gentle winds and slight to moderate wave heights persist across the basin. No significant convection is noted. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from Panama City to just north of the Yucatan peninsula by Mon morning where it will stall before gradually lifting north along the northern Gulf by Tue night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will develop across the western half of the basin Mon night through Tue with locally strong winds in the Texas offshore waters due to the development of a low pressure that will dissipate Tue night. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will dominate the basin the remainder of the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen in the Central Caribbean Sea. Outside of the strong to tropical storm force winds and rough seas south of Haiti in the northern quadrant of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere across the basin. A few showers may be active over portions of the northeast Caribbean. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will move to 16.0N 74.9W Mon morning, 16.3N 76.6W Mon afternoon, 16.7N 78.8W Tue morning, 17.2N 81.3W Tue afternoon, 17.5N 83.6W Wed morning, and 17.4N 85.7W Wed afternoon. Fifteen will move inland near 16.4N 89.5W Thu afternoon. Otherwise, with exception of light to gentle variable winds in the southwest basin, moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast elsewhere through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends east of the Bahamas from 30N64W to 21N67W. Moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas with northerly swell are noted west of this trough. Moderate to fresh E winds are funneling south of 22N, along the north coast of Hispaniola. Farther east, 1018 mb high pressure centered near 27N43W is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas farther south into the tropics, south of 20N between 35W and 65W. Moderate winds are noted elsewhere west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough east of the Bahamas will continue to support moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds N of 27N and W of 67W through this evening. A weak cold front will develop from that low tonight into Monday and move across the waters N of 27N and E of 67W through Wed early in the evening when the front is expected to move E of the area before dissipating. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will persist in the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of the Windward Passage through Thu. $$ Christensen