000 AXNT20 KNHC 281635 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Oct 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, then move southeastward through the weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow behind the front and should reach gale force in the western Bay of Campeche, offshore from near Veracruz, Mexico on Sat afternoon. Seas are expected to build to 8 to 9 ft through Sat evening. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shmtl for more information. Eastern Caribbean Heavy Rainfall: A deep-layered trough continues to persist near 69W over the eastern Caribbean Basin. Abundant moisture along with divergent winds aloft are triggering widespread heavy showers and strong thunderstorms from the Windward Islands northwestward to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago. Locally heavy rainfall will elevate the potential for flooding in these locations today. Please visit the National Weather Service San Juan Forecast Office website at www.weather.gov/sju for the latest details on heavy rainfall and flooding in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For the Windward Islands, refer to your local weather offices for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 24W, from 01N to 10N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 09N, between 24W to 32W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 52W, from 08N to 19N, moving west at 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 12N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N29W to 03N48W. In addition to convection associated with a tropical wave described above, scattered weak convection is observed along the monsoon trough from 11N to 13N, between 16W and 22W. Scattered moderate convection also observed along the ITCZ from 01N to 05N, between 30W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning for the western Bay of Campeche. A surface trough is supporting a line of thunderstorms roughly 60 nm offshore eastern Texas and western Louisiana. A weak stationary front has dissipated this morning, allowing for fresh southerly return flow to become established in the western Gulf. Seas are generally 2-4 ft, with an area of 4-6 ft in the NW Gulf. For the forecast, moderate to fresh return flow will prevail across the W Gulf this morning ahead of the next approaching cold front. Strong winds are expected near the SE Texas coast. The cold front will push off the Texas coast this afternoon and move across the basin through the weekend. Fresh to strong N winds following the front W of 94W through Sat afternoon. Brief gales are expected across the Veracruz area Sat morning and end by the afternoon. The front will reach the Florida Panhandle to central Bay of Campeche by Sun afternoon. The front will stall and dissipate in the eastern Gulf Sun night into Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section for more information on widespread convection and associated heavy rainfall over the eastern basin, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. A surface low has formed along a trough in the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh SE winds are observed in the eastern Caribbean with 4-6 ft seas. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development over the next few days and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea. The current Tropical Weather Outlook assigns a low probability of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and a high probability through five days. Outside of the eastern Caribbean, winds are gentle to moderate with slight seas. For the forecast, a deep layered upper trough extending N to S across the central Caribbean will lift northward into the Atlantic this weekend. A broad area of low pressure over the southeastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending across the eastern Caribbean from the Windward Islands west-northwestward for several hundred miles, mostly E of 70W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or west- northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this weekend. This system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next 5 days. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue through the weekend with the trough and potential developing low. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A stationary front extends from 31N79W to 29N81W. NW of this boundary, fresh NE winds and 5-7 ft seas are observed. SE of the front, moderate NE winds and 4-6 ft seas are observed. A sharp surface trough is analyzed from 31N67W to 20N70W. A 1014 mb low pressure center has developed along this boundary near 30N67W. This feature has a low probability of tropical cyclone development. East of the trough, winds are moderate from the SE with 4-6 ft seas. In the central and eastern Atlantic, a surface ridge extends from 31N47W to 27N30W to 31N13W. North of the ridge, winds are moderate from the NW-SW. South of the ridge, winds are moderate from the E-NE. 8-10 ft swell extends as far south as 20N. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate easterly trades prevail with 4-8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough over the southwestern Atlantic continues to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly between 63W-68W. A 1014 mb surface low pressure with has formed along the the northern portion of the trough near 31N67W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive, and any development should be slow to occur. By late Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to become even less favorable for development, and the low is expected to begin interacting with an approaching frontal system. This system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and 5 days. A frontal system to the north of the area will interact with the low and could bring moderate to rough seas in NE swell through the weekend west of 70W. $$ Flynn