000 AXNT20 KNHC 281043 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Oct 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, then move southeastward through the weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow behind the front and should reach gale force at the western Bay of Campeche, offshore from near Veracruz, Mexico on Sat afternoon. Seas are expected to build and reach 8 to 9 ft through Sat evening. Please refer to the High Sea Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shmtl for more information. Eastern Caribbean Heavy Rainfall: A deep-layered trough continues to persist near 69W over the eastern Caribbean Basin. Abundant moisture along with divergent winds aloft are triggering widespread heavy showers and strong thunderstorms from the Windward Islands northwestward to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago. Locally heavy rainfall will elevate the potential for flooding in these locations today. Please visit the National Weather Service San Juan Forecast Office website at www.weather.gov/sju for the latest details on heavy rainfall and flooding in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For the Windward Islands, refer to your local weather offices for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 23W from southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands at 11N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 02N to 10N between 21W and 26W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 19N southward, and moving west at about 10 kt. Very dry air at low to mid levels are hindering significant convection near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is mostly confined over the African continent. The ITCZ stretches west-southwestward from well south of the Cabo Verde Islands at 06N24W to 03N48W. Scattered moderate convection prevails up to 180 nm along either side of the boundary between 26W and 37W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning for the western Bay of Campeche. A weakening stationary front curves southwestward from near Tampa, Florida to 23N89W to 26N96W. To the NW, scattered moderate convection has developed N of 28N and W of 93W. Otherwise, the southern periphery of a 1034 mb high over the Great Lakes is supporting gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across the eastern and central Gulf, and Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the front will dissipate towards the morning. Moderate to fresh return flow will prevail across the W Gulf through this morning ahead of the next approaching cold front expected to enter the NW Gulf this afternoon. The front is expected to push off the Texas coast this evening and move SE through the weekend. Fresh to strong N winds following the front W of 94W through Sat afternoon. Brief gales are expected across the Veracruz area Sat afternoon. The front will reach the Florida Panhandle to central Bay of Campeche by Sun afternoon before stalling and gradually dissipating. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section for more information on widespread convection and associated heavy rainfall over the eastern basin, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident across the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate N to NE trades with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the deep layered upper trough N to S across the central Caribbean will lift northward into the Atlantic this weekend. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern Caribbean this weekend, possibly related to the southern portion of an existing trough of low pressure over the area. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the disturbance moves generally westward or west- northwestward over the central Caribbean. This system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance in the next 5 days. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue through the weekend with the trough and potential developing low. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A stationary front extends southwestward from off the Carolina coast across 31N79W to over northern Florida. Aided by divergent southerly flow related to a robust upper-level trough near 72W, scattered showers are occurring north of 24N between 60W and 68W. A surface trough extends from 24N50W to 21N50W. To the east, another trough extends from 27N35W to 22N35W. A third surface trough is analyzed from 30N22W to 26N28W. Scattered showers are only noted in the vicinity of the third trough. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 24N30W. Large northerly swell is generating 8 to 10 ft seas west of the Canary Islands north of 25N between 20W and 45W. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen north of 22N between 63W and 69W. Otherwise, the modest central Atlantic ridge is supporting light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft north of 18N between the northwest African coast and Georgia-Florida coast. To the south, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ESE trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are present north of 06N between the central African coast and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly trades with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough over the southwestern Atlantic will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly between 60W-70W. A surface low pressure system is forecast to emerge along the northern portion of the trough axis today, and some subsequent development could occur through Saturday. By late Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development, and the low is expected to begin interacting with an approaching frontal system. This system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and 5 days. A frontal system to the north of the area will interact with the low and could bring moderate to rough seas in NE swell through the weekend west of 70W. $$ ERA