000 AXNT20 KNHC 271052 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Oct 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwestern Atlantic: A trough of low pressure stretching from the eastern Caribbean Sea northward through the Mona Passage to the southwestern Atlantic along 69W to 70W continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The northern part of this trough axis is expected to yield the formation of a surface cyclone tonight. Environmental conditions then appear marginally conducive for subtropical development, and a subtropical depression could form over the next couple of days while the system initially moves northward and then meanders to the west or southwest of Bermuda. By this weekend, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Caribbean Sea Heavy Rainfall: A deep-layer trough over the central Caribbean has become stationary from eastern Hispaniola to the central Caribbean overnight. This feature continues to support active thunderstorms across the Caribbean between 62W and 69W this morning. A tropical wave along 67W is moving westward across the eastern Caribbean. These two systems will combine to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean Sea, including Puerto Rico, the US/UK Virgin Islands and the Dominican Republic through Friday. Excessive heavy rainfall will likely result in localized flooding across portions of these islands through at least Thu evening. Residents in these locations should monitor this developing situation closely and stay informed with their local weather offices and authorities. The trough and tropical wave will merge by Fri and shift westward and weaken. Over the weekend, an area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the disturbance moves generally westward or west-northwestward across the central Caribbean Sea. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 44W-45W from 05N to 15N moving W near 15 kt.The wave is tilted NNE to SSW. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring across northern portions of the wave, from 11N-16N between 41W and 46W. night scatterometer data showed moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are on either side of the wave axis between 12N and 17N. A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 67W from 09N to 19N, moving W at 5-10 kt. The wave is interacting with a deep-layered trough along 69W-70W, resulting in scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection from 10N to 14.5N between 62W and 67.5W, and from 16N northward across Puerto Rico and into the adjacent Atlantic between 66W and 68W. The interaction of these features is expected to lead to a merger along about 70W on Fri. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W to 06N28W to 10N42W, then resumes from 09N47W to 10N61W. Scattered to numerous strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N E of 26W to the W coast of Africa. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is about the ITCZ, from 06N to 08.5N between 29W and 41W. A large area of similar convection is also noted behind the tropical wave along 44W-45W, from 12.5N to 19N between 30W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front stretches from just N of Tampa Bay to 23N90W, where it becomes stationary and continues on to the Mexican coast near 22N98W. Widely scattered shallow convection is noted within 90 nm N of the stationary front to the W of 93.5W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are north of the front, with seas of 3-4 ft. Light to gentle winds and wave heights of 2-4 ft are noted southeast of the front. For the forecast, the front will stall today then dissipate late tonight as the western portions lifts N toward the Texas waters. Moderate to fresh return flow will develop across the NW Gulf tonight into Fri morning ahead of the next approaching cold front. This next front is expected to push off the Texas coast late Fri afternoon and move SE through the weekend. Strong N winds will follow the front W of 94W through Sat afternoon, with brief gales expected across the Veracruz area late morning Sat through the afternoon. The front is expected to reach the Florida Panhandle to central Bay of Campeche by Sun afternoon before stalling and gradually dissipating. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about the potential for heavy rain in the eastern Caribbean Sea through at least Fri. A moist and unstable atmosphere will persist across the area through the weekend due to a persistent upper level trough across the central Caribbean and its interaction with a tropical wave. Light to gentle NE winds are over most of the basin W of 70W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas in the 6-8 ft range prevail E of the Lesser Antilles to about 50W. Fresh to locally strong SE winds prevail across the eastern Caribbean E of the tropical wave, where seas are 4 to 7 ft in E and SE swell. Scattered strong convection trails the tropical wave to the S of 14N and extends into the tropical Atlantic waters to 56W. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will maintain gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the basin W of 70W through Fri. A deep layered upper trough N to S across the central Caribbean will drift westward through Sat then lift northward into the Atlantic Sun. A tropical wave along 67W continues to interact with this feature to produce scattered to numerous thunderstorms between 63W and 68W early this morning. The tropical wave will move slowly W through Sat and gradually merge with the upper trough along 70W. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern Caribbean Sea this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the disturbance moves generally westward or west- northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about convection associated with a trough of low pressure stretching from the eastern Caribbean Sea northward to the southwestern Atlantic. A dissipating stationary front extends from near 31N20W to 25N37W to 301N53W. Light to gentle winds are noted in the wake of the front with an area of mainly moderate E to SE winds between 47W-52W. A 1019 mb high pressure center is just to the north of the Canary Islands near 29N15W. North swell generated N of the cold front will produce wave heights of 8-12 ft roughly to the waters north of 29N and east of 45W through tonight. Mainly moderate NE winds prevail S of 23N between Africa and 40W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Fresh easterly winds prevail across the tropical Atlantic between 48W and the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 5-8 ft. For the forecast, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist across the Atlantic waters between 62W and 68W today, supported by a deep layered upper trough along about 70W. At the surface, a trough of low pressure stretches from Hispaniola northward along 69W-70W. These features are expected to remain nearly stationary through early Sat and maintain active thunderstorms to the E. Low pressure is expected to develop along the trough to the N of 29N by Fri. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual subtropical development of this system, and a subtropical depression could form during the next couple of days, as this system drifts northward. The system is then forecast to meander over the subtropical western Atlantic to the west or southwest of Bermuda Sat through Mon. Associated large NE swell will impact the northern waters W of 70W Fri night through the weekend. $$ Stripling