000 AXNT20 KNHC 270004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Oct 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Trough: A trough that extends northward from Haiti to 26N71W and to just north of the area at 32N72W is producing a broad area of disorganized scattered moderate convection from 19N to 31N between 60W-69W. The northern part of this trough axis is expected to result in the formation of a surface cyclone, and environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for subtropical development of this system thereafter. A subtropical depression could form while the system moves northward during the next couple of days. The system is then forecast to meander over the subtropical western Atlantic to the west or southwest of Bermuda as upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the weekend. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Caribbean Sea Heavy Rainfall: A deep-layer central Caribbean trough is drifting eastward. At the surface, a trough extends from the Dominican Republic southward to near 15N75W. In addition, a tropical wave along 66W will gradually migrate toward the deep layer trough through Thu evening. These two systems will combine to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean Sea, including Puerto Rico, the US/UK Virgin Islands and the Dominican Republic. Excessive heavy rainfall will likely result in localized flooding across portions of Puerto Rico, the US/UK Virgin Islands, and eastern Hispaniola through at least Thu evening. Residents in these locations should monitor this developing situation closely and stay informed with their local weather offices and authorities. In addition, an area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern Caribbean Sea this weekend, possibly related to the southern part of an existing trough of low pressure over the area. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the disturbance moves generally westward or west-northwestward into the central Caribbean Sea. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 44W from 04N to 18N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. No deep convection is noted along or near the wave. However, isolated showers are possible near its axis from 05N to 11N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 66W from 09N to 19N. It is moving westward at 5-10 kt. A large area of numerous moderate to strong convection is between the wave and 61W from 13N to 19N. An upper-level diffluent flow east of the wave is helping to sustain this convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 07N18W to 07N26W to 12N41W to 10N45W and to 11N60W. A large area of numerous moderate to strong convection is observed from the ITCZ north to 16N and between 30W-41W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 37W-41W ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is analyzed from northeast Florida southwestward to 23N93W, where it becomes stationary to the central Bay of Campeche. No deep convection is noted with this front. Isolated small showers and thunderstorms are seen southeast of the front. A 1014 mb high center is just west of southwest Florida. Latest ASCAT data passes show moderate to fresh northerly winds, and wave heights of 5-7 ft north and northwest of the cold front north of 22N. Northwest winds in the far southwestern Gulf have diminishes to fresh speeds and wave heights there have subsided to 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted. Wave heights of 2-4 ft are in the southeast part of the Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will continue pushing southward toward the Tampa Bay region before becoming stationary tonight, then dissipate by Thu. Moderate to fresh return flow will develop across NW Gulf on Thu night into Fri morning ahead of the next approaching cold front. This cold front is expected to push off the Texas coast on Fri afternoon and move eastward through the weekend. Winds behind the front could increase to gale-force near Veracruz on Sat morning for a few hours. The front will reach the eastern Gulf by Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about the potential for heavy rain in the Caribbean Sea through late this week. A surface trough extends from the east-central sections of the Yucatan Peninsula to the eastern section of El Salvador. No convection is noted with this trough. Light to gentle trade winds are over most of the basin, except in the eastern section of the Caribbean, where fresh trade winds are noted. Wave heights of 4-6 ft in east swell are to the east of the tropical wave. Seas of 2-4 ft are elsewhere in the basin. The monsoon trough roughly extends along 09N/10N and westward to beyond Panama and Costa Rica and into the tropical Pacific domain. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near and along the trough. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will maintain gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the basin W of 70W through Fri. A deep layered trough N to S across the central Caribbean will stall over the area through the weekend and lift northward on gradually lift northward early next week. A tropical wave along 66W will continue moving westward and become absorbed within the trough along 70W tonight through Thu night. This interaction will induce numerous thunderstorms across the eastern half of the basin through Thu. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and increasing east swell across the Tropical Atlantic waters will gradually shift into the far eastern Caribbean through Thu. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern Caribbean Sea this weekend, possibly related to the southern part of an existing trough of low pressure over the area. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the disturbance moves generally westward or west-northwestward into the central Caribbean Sea. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating front extends from near 30N20W to 27N30W to 26N40W to 28N47W and to 31N41W. A surface trough extends from 25N30W to 20N31W to near 16N37W. A large area of rain with embedded moderate rain, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is seen from 16N to 18N between 30W-40W and from 16N to 19N between 24W-40W. A 1018 mb high pressure center is just to the south of the Canary Islands near 26N16W. North swell will produce wave heights of 8-12 ft roughly to the waters north of 29N and east of 45W through Thu. Wave heights of 5-8 ft in the tropical Atlantic are between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms persist across the Atlantic waters between 60W-70W that is associated with a deep layer upper-level trough. At the surface, a trough of low pressure along 70W stretching from the eastern Caribbean northward to the southwestern Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual subtropical development of this system, and a subtropical depression could form while it drifts northward during the next couple of days. The system is then forecast to meander over the subtropical western Atlantic to the west or southwest of Bermuda. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the weekend. This system has a medium chance of development in the next 48 hours and 5 days. Regardless of development, strong winds are expected near the low. $$ Aguirre