000 AXNT20 KNHC 260529 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Oct 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front from extends from the NW Florida-Alabama border to just SE of Veracruz, Mexico. Gale force winds are occurring behind the cold front near the Veracruz area. Wave heights with these winds are expected to peak to 9 ft tonight. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force during the overnight hours. Please read the High Sea Forecast issued by NHC at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. Eastern Caribbean Sea Heavy Rainfall: A deep-layer trough extends across the central Caribbean from the Windward Passage to near northwest Colombia. A wide band of showers and thunderstorms is on the east side of the trough affecting from northern Colombia and western Venezuela all the way NE to Puerto Rico and regional waters, and parts of Hispaniola. Meanwhile, a tropical wave, with axis along 64W based on recent scatterometer pass, will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through late Thu. These ingredients will combine this week leading to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean Sea, including Puerto Rico, the US/UK Virgin Islands and the Dominican Republic. The San Juan Doppler radar shows showers with strong thunderstorms over the Mona Passage moving northward and affecting the west coastal areas of Puerto Rico. Frequent lightning and gusty winds are expected with the strong thunderstorms. Excessive heavy rainfall could result in localized flooding across portions of Puerto Rico, the US/UK Virgin Islands, and eastern Hispaniola through at least Thu. Residents in these locations should monitor this developing situation closely and stay informed with their local weather offices and authorities. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W from 03N to 15N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis mainly from 06N to 10N between 38W and 43W. Another tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 64W based on a recent ASCAT pass that indicates the wind shift associated with the wave. Some convective activity is near the southern end of the wave affecting the Windward Islands and eastern Venezuela. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 07N25W to 08N35W to 08N50W to 11N59W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 43W and 53W. The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends into the southwestern Caribbean Sea roughly along 10N/11N and to near northwest Colombia. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the trough, and over parts of Costa Rica and Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front from extends from the NW Florida-Alabama border to just SE of Veracruz, Mexico. Refer to the Special Features section for more details. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ahead of the front to near 87W and from 23N to 26N. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and wave heights of 5-7 ft are behind the front over the northwestern Gulf. A weak ridge dominates the eastern Gulf where light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move SE and weaken overnight, and reach from the Florida Big Bend to central Bay of Campeche Wed afternoon, before gradually dissipating from near Tampa Bay to the SW Gulf Wed night into Thu. Strong to gale force winds from Veracruz to Cabo Rojo, Mexico will shift southward and diminish overnight. Moderate to fresh return flow will develop across NW portions Thu night through Fri, ahead of the next approaching cold front, which should move off the Texas coast Fri afternoon. This next front may stall and weaken in the central Gulf this weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for potential heavy rain across the eastern Caribbean Sea this week. Enhanced by the deep-layer trough and associated moisture mentioned in the Special Features section, numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms continue to flaring up over the east-central Caribbean. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms. Satellite derived wind data indicate moderate to locally fresh SE winds behind the tropical wave located along 64W. Moderate NE winds are in the lee of eastern Cuba while moderate easterly winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds are seen elsewhere across the basin. Seas are generally 2-4 ft. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the regional Atlantic and Caribbean will maintain gentle to moderate trade winds through early Wed. A deep layered trough across the central Caribbean will gradually lift northward through the remainder of the week. A tropical wave along 64W will move westward and become absorbed within the trough along 68W Wed night through Thu. This interaction will induce numerous thunderstorms across the eastern half of the basin tonight through Thu. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and increasing E swell across the Tropical Atlantic waters will gradually shift into the far eastern Caribbean tonight through Wed. An area of low pressure could form over the eastern Caribbean Sea by early this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development as the low drifts westward or west-northwestward over the eastern Caribbean this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough of low pressure stretching from the central Caribbean northward to the southwestern Atlantic is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms between 65W and 72W. At the surface, a weak trough is analyzed along 70W/71W with a 1011 mb low pressure near 27N70W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual subtropical development of this system over the next few days while it drifts north-northeastward. The system is then forecast to meander over the subtropical western Atlantic to the west or southwest of Bermuda. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the weekend. A cold front extends from a 1008 mb low pressure located mid-way between the Azores and the Madeira Islands to 27N30W to 31N46W where it becomes stationary. Mainly low clouds and possible showers are along the frontal boundary. A swell event will follow this front bringing seas of 8-10 ft roughly across the waters N of 29N and E of 45W Wed into Thu. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed from 22N to 30N between 40W and 52W associated with an upper-level trough. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters in under the influence of high pressure with a center of 1018 mb situated SW of the Canary Islands near 25N24W. Seas of 5-8 ft are noted over the tropical Atlantic between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 55W, the deep layered trough will drift slowly eastward through Thu and produce very active weather. Low pres is expected to develop near 29N67W by Thu night and move to near 31.5N68W early Sat, where it will remain nearly stationary through the upcoming weekend. $$ GR