000 AXNT20 KNHC 251807 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Oct 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Fresh to strong northerly winds behind a cold front at the Bay of Campeche are expected to increase and reach near-gale to gale force by this evening. Please read the High Sea Forecast issued by NHC at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. Eastern Caribbean Sea Heavy Rainfall: A deep-layered trough currently north of the Dominican Republic near 71W is advecting moisture across Hispaniola. It will drift eastward to north of Puerto Rico and spread moisture over the island through Wed. Meanwhile, a tropical wave just east of the Lesser Antilles is going to enter the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight through Wed. These elements will combine Thu, producing numerous showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean Seas, including Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands and the Dominican Republic. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding across portions of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and eastern Hispaniola through Thu. Residents in these locations should monitor this developing situation closely and stay informed with their local weather offices and authorities. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 14N southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 36W and 39W. Latest ASCAT satellite scatterometer data reveal fresh easterly winds with 7 to 9 ft seas near and east of the wave from 06N to 11N between 35W and 38W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is just east of the Lesser Antilles near 59W from 19N southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 11N to 17N between 57W and 60W. Latest ASCAT satellite scatterometer data show fresh easterly winds with 7 to 9 ft seas near and east of the wave from 11N to 17N between 55W and 59W. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 76W from eastern Cuba southward to northwestern Colombia, and drifting westward around 5 kt. Enhanced by the deep-layered trough and associated moisture mentioned in the Special Features section, numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are flaring up over the central Caribbean Sea, including southern Hispaniola. This wave is in the process of being absorbed into the deep-layered trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough entered the Atlantic along the African coast near Bissau to 09N19W. No significant convection is near the trough based on this analysis. An ITCZ continues from 09N19W across 08N30W to 07N36W, and then from 06N39W across 07N50W to 10N57W. Scattered moderate convection is found up to 100 nm north and 60 nm south of the first ITCZ segment between 27W and 36W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present up to 120 nm north and 80 nm south of the second ITCZ segment. The eastern end of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Panama and northwestern Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for developing gale winds at the western Bay of Campeche. A cold front curves southwestward from just west of New Orleans to just south of the Texas-Mexico border. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen along and up to 60 nm south of the front. Convergent southerly winds farther southeast is causing similar conditions at the central Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are seen behind the front over the northwestern Gulf. Fresh northerly winds with seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident near the front at the north-central Gulf. A surface ridge extends from a 1018 mb high over central Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. This feature is supporting gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, occasional and local gusts to gale force just behind the front are possible today, while sustained gales off Mexico in the western Bay of Campeche will occur this evening. This front will reach from Mobile Bay, Alabama to the western Bay of Campeche this evening. The front will then slow down and weaken, and gradually dissipate Wed night into Thu. Fresh return flow will develop across northwestern Gulf Thu night through Fri, ahead of the next approaching cold front, which should move off the Texas coast late Fri afternoon. This next front may stall and weaken in the central Gulf this weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for potential heavy rain across the eastern Caribbean Sea. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for convection in the Caribbean Basin. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are found at the central basin and Gulf of Honduras. Mainly gentle easterly trades and seas of 2 to 3 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the regional Atlantic and Caribbean will maintain gentle to moderate trade winds and light to moderate seas through early Wed. A deep layered trough is expected to develop across the central Caribbean today through Wed and lift northward Thu and Fri. A tropical wave along 59W will move westward and become absorbed within the trough along 67W Wed night through Thu. These features will induce numerous thunderstorms across the eastern half of the basin later today through Thu. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and increasing E swell are moving into Tropical Atlantic waters, behind the tropical wave, and will gradually shift into the far eastern Caribbean tonight through Wed. An area of low pressure could form over the eastern Caribbean Sea by early this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep-layered trough runs northward from north of the Dominican Republic at 21N70W to beyond 31N at 74W. This system is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the central and southeast Bahamas northward between 67W and 76W. An upper-level near 29N56W is producing scattered moderate convection north of 25N between 47W and 57W. A modest cold front curves westward from west of the Canary Islands across 31N25W across 29N35W to beyond 31N43W. Patchy showers are evident up to 60 nm along either side of this boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. The weak Atlantic ridge is sustaining light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 22N between the northwest African coast and 65W. To the west, gentle to moderate NE to E to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are present north of 20N between 65W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Further south outside the influence of the tropical waves, gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas at 6 to 9 ft are noted north of 08N between the central African coast and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the Atlantic waters between 65W and 74W, associated with a deep-layered upper trough. The trough will drift slowly eastward and reorganize at lower levels along 69W today through Thu and produce very active weather. A low pressure is expected to develop near 28N67W by Thu night and move to near 31N68W Fri night where it will become stationary through Sat. $$ Chan