000 AXNT20 KNHC 251148 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Oct 25 2022 Updated for latest Tropical Weather Outlook Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northwestern Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms have decreased since yesterday in association with a well-defined area of low pressure located just west-northwest of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive for development, and the chance of this system becoming a short-lived tropical depression appears to be decreasing. The low is expected to move northward towards cooler waters and into a region of unfavorable upper- level winds by tonight, which should limit further development. Regardless of development, periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over Bermuda though this morning. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W/36W from 03N to 15N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the wave, from 04.5N-11N between 30W-39W. This appears to be a low amplitude wave and will initiate active convection along the ITCZ during the next few days. A central Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned westward, to along 59W, from 05N to 19N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 16N-20N between 50W-57W. Similar convective activity is from 09N-19N between 54W-60W. Recent scatterometer data indicated a surface trough associated with this wave, and an area of fresh to strong E to SE winds near the northern end of the wave. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 75W/76W extending from eastern Cuba to northern Colombia. It is drifting westward. The wave, combined with an upper-level trough, is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms from northwest Colombia northward to Hispaniola. A deep layered extending from the adjacent Atlantic along 75W extends SW into the western Caribbean and is expected to absorb this wave during the next 24 hours. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N17.5W. The ITCZ continues to 08N17.5W to 07N23W to 08.5N31W then it resumes west of a tropical wave near 07N38W to 09N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-14N between 18W-30W. Aside from convection described above with tropical waves, scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N-11.5N between 30W-55W. The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the southwestern Caribbean roughly along 10N/11N. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring S of 12N between 75W-81W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure over the southeastern United States extends southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico to the SW Gulf. A dry and stable weather pattern persists across the basin. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure over Texas is supporting fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf west of about 88W. Seas are 5-8 ft within these winds based on buoys observations. Moderate SE winds along with wave heights of 2-4 ft are over the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong S winds across the W Gulf will give way to strong NW winds this morning, behind a cold front approaching the Texas coast just prior to sunrise. This front will move off the Texas coast near sunrise, and reach from Mobile Bay to the western Bay of Campeche this evening. The front will then slow down and weaken, and gradually dissipate Wed night into Thu. Strong to near gale force N winds are expected in the far NW Gulf behind the front this morning, off Tampico midday, and off Veracruz this evening and night. Fresh return flow will develop across NW portions Thu night through Fri, ahead of the next approaching cold front, which should move off the Texas coast late Fri afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. The southern extension of the western Atlantic sharp upper-level trough stretches from eastern Cuba southwestward to coastal Nicaragua. A very moist and unstable environment east of this trough, combined with a tropical wave, is sustaining scattered showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is supporting generally gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin along with relatively low wave heights of 2-4 ft. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the regional Atlantic and Caribbean will maintain gentle to moderate trade winds and light to moderate seas across the Caribbean basin through early Wed. A deep layered trough is expected to develop across the central Caribbean today through Wed and lift northward Thu and Fri. A tropical wave along 59W will move westward and become absorbed within the trough along 67W Wed night through Thu. These features will induce numerous thunderstorms across the eastern half of the basin Tue through Thu, and extend across the NE Caribbean islands into the adjacent Atlantic. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and increasing E swell are moving into Tropical Atlantic waters this morning, behind the tropical wave, and will gradually shift into the far eastern Caribbean tonight through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a tropical disturbance located S of Bermuda. An area of low pressure is expected to form north of Puerto Rico over the southwestern Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual subtropical development of this system while it meanders over the southwestern Atlantic through the early part of the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the Atlantic waters between 66W and 73W, associated with a deep layered upper level trough extending N to S between 71W and 80W. The most recent satellite-derived wind data depicted a broad inverted surface trough across the area W of 57W, with light to gentle winds. Wave heights are 4 to 6 ft in NE swell across this area. In the central Atlantic, an upper-level low spinning near 29N57W continues to generate scattered moderate convection from 20N-31N between 50W-60W. The remainder of the Atlantic is under influence of a weak surface ridge anchored by a 1018 mb high pressure located SW of the Canary Islands near 25N23W. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front is sinking southward to along 30N between 30W and 40W. The front will move farther S across the forecast region today and weaken, reaching 27N-28N by this evening. Seas are generally 5-7 ft in N to NE swell across most of the waters E of 60W. For the forecast west of 55W, active showers and thunderstorms will continue through tonight across the Atlantic waters between 67W and 74W, associated with a deep layered upper trough. The trough will drift slowly eastward and reorganize at lower levels along 69W Tue through Thu and maintain very active weather. Low pressure is expected to develop near 28N67W by Thu night and move to near 31N68W Fri night where it will become stationary through Sat. $$ Stripling