000 AXNT20 KNHC 231057 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Oct 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W, from 18N southward, moving W at 10 knots. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06.5N to 15.5N between 18N southward between 44W and 49W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W, from 24N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 knots. This wave continues to interact with a vigorous middle to upper level trough to its north, which is amplifying the wave northward of 20N. Isolated clusters of moderate convection are noted from 18.5N to 22.5N between 50W and 59W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from 18N southward, moving W at 10 knots. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N northward between 45W and 70W and is producing generally stable upper level conditions across the central and eastern Caribbean. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to coastal portions of Venezuela and Colombia between 68W and 73W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are occurring across interior Venezuela N of 09.5N between 68.5W and Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 08N27W 07.5N38W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 02N to 09N between 08W and 30W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13.5N between 34W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from the South Carolona across the Florida Panhandle and southwestward to the Bay of Campeche. Broad moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, with strongest winds occurring in southerly return flow across the upper Mexico and Texas coastal waters. The sea heights range from 4 to 6 feet across NW portions to 2 to 3 ft north central portions. Low clouds are seen in satellite imagery across the basin, with no significant convection noted. High pressure extending NE to SW across the basin will gradually shift NE through early next week. Fresh SE winds in the far NW Gulf will increase to strong today and expand to the waters W of 93W tonight, ahead of a cold front. The front will move off the Texas coast early Tue morning, and reach from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the western Bay of Campeche Tue evening. The front will then slow down and weaken, then gradually dissipate over the SE basin through the middle of next week. In the wake of the cold front, strong N winds are anticipated in the far W Gulf Tue through Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front continues across the NW Caribbean from eastern Cuba near 20N77W passes to the NW coast of Honduras along 86W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong is within 240 nm to the southeast of the stationary front, including the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen about the monsoon trough across the SW Caribbean, S of 12N between 74W and 84W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail across NW portions of the basin, NW of the front. Moderate trade winds prevail across central portions, either side of a tropical wave along 70W. Seas across the basin are 3 to 5 ft NW portions, 4 to 5 ft central portions, and generally 3 ft or less elsewhere. A middle to upper level trough extends from the central Atlantic southwestward across the Caribbean east of 70W and is producing generally stable conditions aloft. The stationary front across the NW Caribbean will meander, with active convection continuing N of 16N today before dissipating late tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected through the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 31N72W to the central Bahamas near 75W and to eastern Cuba near 77W. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds prevail to the west of the stationary front. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm E and SE of the front. A surface trough extends from 1015 mb low pressure center near 30.5N51.5W to 23N55W. A vigorous middle to upper level trough covers the Atlantic south of 30N between 48W and 68W, and is generally inducing a broad weak trough in the low levels. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring to the NE of the trough, within 450 nm NE of a line from 20N46W to 25N62W. A broad zone of fresh to strong winds accompanies the low center near 30.5N51.5W between 48W and 62W, where seas are 8 to 12 ft. Elsewhere ridging prevails E of 50W, with fresh trade winds prevailing across the tropical Atlantic. Seas are 6 to 9 ft there in NE swell. A weak surface trough along 75W from the central Bahamas to 31N will drift N and out of the area late today. The stationary front from 31N73W to central Cuba along 76W will weaken to a trough late today, then dissipate early next week. The pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will produce fresh N-NE winds W of the trough and N of 28N through this evening before diminishing. Low pressure will move WNW through the far NE waters this afternoon and tonight, bringing fresh to locally strong winds. A broad inverted trough will move W to along 64W early Mon, then shift W and reorganize along 72W Tue through Thu. $$ Stripling