000 AXNT20 KNHC 221058 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Oct 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W, from 19N southward, moving W at 10 knots. Widespread convection prevails about the monsoon trof between this wave and Africa. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05.5N to 15.5N between 35W and 42W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W, from 23N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 knots. This wave is interacting with a deep layered upper trough between 40W and 65W, which is amplifying the wave axis toward the NNE. Satellite imagery suggests a 1010 mb surface low is along the wave near 19.5N 54W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 19N to 25N between 46W and 56W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W, from 17N southward, moving W 10 knots. The deep layered upper trough to the NE of this wave is producing stable atmospheric conditions near the wave and limiting convection. No significant convection is currently occurring near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 07N30W to 08N40W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection prevails from 03N to 11N between the coast of Africa and 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from the mid Atlantic states SW across the Florida Panhandle to the coastal plains of Mexico near 19N96W. Relatively dry and stable conditions prevail across the basin this morning and are yielding fair weather. Anticyclonic flow dominates the basin, with moderate NE winds across SE portions and moderate return flow developing across the upper Mexican and Texas coastal waters. Seas are around 4 ft across SE portions and the Straits of Florida, 3 to 5 ft across the Texas coastal waters, and 3 ft or less elsewhere. The broad high pressure ridge extending from the NE Gulf coast will dominate this weekend as it drifts NE into the SE U.S. This pattern will allow for fresh S winds to develop across the W Gulf Sat, with strong winds expected NW portions Sat night through Mon night. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf early Tue morning and reach from SE Louisiana to the western Bay of Campeche Tue evening, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds. The front will dissipated by early Thu as it shifts slowly SE across the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front persists through the Bahamas, across central Cuba to the NW coast of Honduras along 86W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail W of the front, producing seas of 4 to 6 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along the N coast of Honduras to 17N between 82W and 86W. Isolated moderate convection extends elsewhere within 180 nm SE of the front to the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate to strong convection is about the monsoon trof across the SW Caribbean, S of 11.5N between 76W and 81.5W. An upper level trough previously mentioned extends from the central Atlantic SW into the central Caribbean and is producing stable conditions across most of the basin E of 80W. Gentle to moderate trade winds prevail elsewhere E of 80W, where seas are 3 to 4 ft. The stationary front extending from central Cuba to the N coast of Honduras will meander and gradually dissipate this weekend. Fresh N to NE winds will continue behind the front over the NW Caribbean today before diminishing. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 31N68W, to the Bahamas near 24N76W, beyond Cuba near 22N78W, to the NW coast of Honduras. A surface trough is about 180 nm to the northwest of the stationary front, from Cuba northeastward. A vigorous and deep layered upper trough is across the NW waters along 78W and is supporting scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection to the N of 21N between 69W and 76W. Fresh NE winds prevail within 120 nm to the NW of the surface trough, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. A deep layered upper trof dominated the region between 40W and 68W to the N of 16N. This is producing a series of inverted troughs between the stationary front and 40W, and which interrupts the ridge across the central Atlantic. A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 28.5N44W moving W at 15 kt. Strong E to NE winds to around 30 kt are within 360 nm of the center between 35W and 52W, where seas are 8 to 14 ft in NE swell. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm across the NW semicircle of the low. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the Atlantic between 40W and Africa. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in long period NNE swell there. The stationary front from SW of Bermuda through central Cuba will meander and dissipate this weekend. The surface trough located just to its W will lift N through the weekend, with low pressure expected to develop near 28N75W Sat evening, then move N of the area by Sun evening. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will allow for northeast winds over the waters north of the Bahamas to strengthen to fresh to strong speeds Sat through Sun before diminishing. A broad inverted trough will generally prevail across the waters W of 65W Mon through Wed. $$ Stripling