507 
AXNT20 KNHC 211755
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Oct 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W, from 05N to 17N. 
The wave is moving west at 10 knots. Convection near the wave is 
described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ Section.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W, from 04N to 21N, 
moving west at 15 knots. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of 
the wave axis, mainly north of 15N.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, from 04N to 17N, moving 
west at 10 knots. No convection is noted at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits western Africa near 12N16W to 07N27W to 
08N37W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between
24W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

At 1500 UTC, 1021 mb high pressure is centered on the Gulf Coast 
at the border of Alabama and Mississippi. Quiescent conditions
prevail in the Gulf of Mexico, with gentle anticyclonic winds and
2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will dominate 
through the weekend as it drifts NE. As the high moves out of the 
area, fresh S winds will develop in the far W Gulf Sat night and 
increase to strong Sun night through Mon night. A cold front will 
move into the NW Gulf Tue morning and reach from SE Louisiana to 
the western Bay of Campeche Tue night, followed by fresh to 
locally strong northerly winds. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the coast of Cuba near 21N79W to
the Gulf of Honduras near 16N87W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm ahead of the front. NW of the front, seas are 4-6 
ft with moderate to fresh NE flow. Elsewhere in the Caribbean, 
gentle trades prevail with seas of 2-4 ft. A small area of 
moderate N winds are noted in the far SW Caribbean near the 
extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will 
gradually dissipate over the next couple of days. Fresh N to NE 
winds will prevail behind the front over the NW Caribbean into 
tonight before diminishing. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade 
winds and slight to moderate seas are expected into early next 
week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1011 mb low pressure is near 30N39.5W, with gale force winds north
of the discussion waters. A surface trough extends southwest of
the low. Another surface trough in the area extends from 27N37W to
24N41W. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N to 30N between
32W and 40W. Seas 8 ft or greater are north of a line from 31N54W
to 26N43W to 31N35W with 14 ft peak seas near the low center.
Swell direction is NE.

1012 mb low pressure is centered over the N Bahamas near 26N78W.
The latest scatterometer depicts fresh to strong NE winds north of
the low pressure center. A developing cold front extends from the
low southwest to the Straits of Florida. A surface trough extends
from the low northeast to 27N74W. No significant convection is
noted at this time.

A cold front extends from 31N68W to 26N73W, where a stationary
front then continues to the coast of Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered
moderate convection is north of 27N between 68W and 71W. In the
lee of the front, moderate NE winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow prevails, driven by 1020 mb high pressure
centered just west of the Canary Islands. Seas are 4-7 in open
waters, increasing to 7-9 ft within an area from 17N to 24N east
of 25W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the low currently over the NW Bahamas 
will drift NNE through the weekend, then move N of the area early 
next week, while a cold front trails SW from the low. The cold 
front from SW of Bermuda through central Cuba will stall tonight 
then dissipate this weekend. The pressure gradient between the low
and high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will allow for 
northeast winds over the waters north of the Bahamas to strengthen
to fresh to locally strong speeds Fri night through Sun before 
diminishing.

For the forecast of significant features E of 55W, the 1011 mb 
low currently near 30N39.5W will move quickly SSW to 28.5N47W by
1200 UTC 22 October. Strong winds will persist near the low, but 
gale force winds are not expected south of 31N. Peak seas near 
this feature will diminish to 12 ft with swell direction remaining
NE. The low pressure has a LOW (10%) chance of developing into a
subtropical or tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.

$$
Mahoney