000 AXNT20 KNHC 191739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Oct 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1735 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the NW Bahamas to the Bay of Campeche. Strong high pressure in its wake has become established over eastern Mexico and has caused the pressure gradient to tighten significantly. As a result, strong to gale force NW-N winds are occurring over a portion of the southwest Gulf. Winds in the range of 30-40 kt are occurring S of 21N and W of 95W, primarily offshore Veracruz. Wave heights generated by these winds are in the range of 12-17 ft. N-NE winds of 20-25 kt are elsewhere north of the front. Wave heights with these winds are in the range of 8-12 ft. The gradient will begin to relax tonight into early Thu allowing for winds to diminish below gale force. Seas will subside below 8 ft by late Thu. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W, south of 14N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 12N and between 25W and 37W. Latest satellite-derived wind data indicate that fresh to strong easterly winds are occurring from 09N to 13N and between 27W and 31W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W, south of 21N, moving slowly W near 5 kt. An area of low pressure of 1013 mb is seen near 19N43W. An upper level trough is imparting strong southwesterly wind shear across the disturbance, supporting numerous moderate to isolated strong convection located to the northeast of the wave and low pressure from 18N to 27N and between 35W and 45W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to near gale-force easterly winds east of the tropical wave and low to 35W and from 15N to 23N. The strongest winds are associated with the heaviest showers and thunderstorms. Seas of 8-12 ft are occurring from 18N to 24N and between 37W to 45W. Latest altimeter satellite pass indicate seas up 12 ft near 20N40W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W, south of 17N, moving W at 5-10 kt. The wave has been adjusted a couple of degrees eastward based on visible satellite imagery. A few shallow showers are present near the trough axis. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 83W, south of 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Interaction between the wave and East Pacific monsoon trough supports scattered showers to isolated strong convection within 100 nm of the coast of western Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 08N27W and to 05N37W. Scattered showers are occurring from 01N to 09N and E of 25W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about an ongoing SW Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning. A strong cold front continues to push southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico, extending from the Florida Straits to northern Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the waters of the Florida Straits and also near the coast of Mexico in the southern Bay of Campeche. The remainder of the Gulf is under a dry continental airmass that is suppressing the development of convection. Outside of the Gale Warning area in the SW Gulf, moderate to fresh northerly winds are found in the rest of the Gulf, along with seas of 4-8 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front extending across the Straits of Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche will move to just southeast of the area by late this morning. Strong gale force winds, with seas peaking to 17 ft are present in the SW Gulf. These conditions will diminish late tonight into early Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and south of the front. High pressure will settle in over the area in the wake of the front. The high pressure will shift eastward across the northern Gulf through Sat night allowing for fresh southerly flow to set up over the western Gulf starting Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong cold front extends from Pinar del Rio to NE Yucatan. A few showers dot the waters south of the frontal boundary, from south of western Cuba to the NE Yucatan peninsula. No other significant convection is occurring in the basin. Moderate to locally strong northerly winds are noted behind the cold front, along with seas of 3-6 ft. Moderate to occasionally fresh easterly trade winds are affecting the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across most of the Caribbean during the next several days. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late this morning, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Thu, then become stationary on Fri as low pressure develops along the frontal boundary northeast of the NW Bahamas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds with moderate seas will follow the front. The front is forecast to weaken and dissipate over the Caribbean waters during the upcoming weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Topical Waves section for details about wind and wave heights associated to the wave along 43W. A robust cold front extends from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring east of the frontal boundary to 67W and N of 25N. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are observed behind the cold front, along with seas of 3-6 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are occurring ahead of the front to 63W and N of 25N. Seas in these waters are also 3-6 ft. The remainder of the western Atlantic, W of 55W, is under a 1020 mb high pressure system centered near 30N59W, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft. A weak surface trough extends from 31N51W to 25N59W and a few showers are noted near the trough axis. A 1024 mb high pressure system positioned near 29N31W dominates the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures over NW Africa support fresh to strong NE-E winds from the latitude of the Cabo Verde Islands near 15N to 27N and E of 30W. Seas in these waters are 4-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent in the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. As for the forecast, the aforementioned strong cold front extending from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba by Thu morning, then become stationary through the weekend. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds ahead of the front will diminish this evening. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds will follow the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms precede the front. Low pressure will form over or near the Bahamas on Fri and lift NW of the area Sat and Sat night. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will allow for northeast winds over the waters north and northwest of the Bahamas to gradually strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds during the weekend. $$ DELGADO