000 AXNT20 KNHC 191041 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Oct 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from South Florida to the SW Gulf. Strong high pressure in its wake is building southward over eastern Mexico. Cold air advection is taking place over the western Gulf as the pressure gradient there has significantly tightened. As a result, strong gale force northwest to north winds are occurring over a portion of the southwest Gulf, generally over the waters just southeast of Veracruz. These winds are in the range of 30-40 kt south of about 21N and west of 95W. Wave heights generated by these winds are in the range of 11-17 ft. North to northeast winds of 20-25 kt are elsewhere north of the front, except for 25-30 kt winds from 20N to 24N west of 93W. Wave heights with these winds are in the range of 8-12 ft, except for 10-15 ft from 20N to 24N west of 93W. The gradient will begin to relax tonight into early Thu allowing for the gale force winds to diminish below gale force. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along reached 28W from 03N to 15N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is surrounded by a very moist and unstable environment. Increasing scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 12N between 25W-33W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 05N to 22N, with weak low pressure of 1013 mb near 18N42W. Satellite imagery shows an area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection located to the northeast of the wave and low pressure from 18N to 25N between 34W-42W. An ASCAT pass from last night revealed fresh to strong east to southeast winds east of the wave and low to 35W. Nearby Altimeter data indicated wave heights of 8-9 ft. A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W from 05N to 18N. Its is moving westward at 5-10 kt. Isolated small showers and thunderstorms are from 10N to 16N between the wave and 50W. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 82W south of 17N to the eastern Pacific Ocean near 04N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 09N13W to 08N16W, where latest ASCAT data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N21W and northwest to 10N27W. It resumes west of a tropical wave near 07N30W and to 09N40W. Aside from convection related to the tropical wave along 28W, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 10W-17W, and within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 20W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 16W-21W, and within 60 nm north of the trough between 13W-16W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about an ongoing SW Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning A cold front extends from South Florida to the SW Gulf. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds, with embedded scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and south of the front east of about 88W to the western part of the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of the front and west of 88W. Skies are clearing to the northwest of a line from 30N84W to 28N90W and to near Brownsville, Texas as cold air advection takes place, with high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Wave heights are 6-9 ft north of the wave outside the gale warning area described above, except for higher wave heights of 8-11 ft from 22N to 26N west of 94W. As for the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move to just southeast of the area by late this morning. High pressure will settle in over the area in the wake of the front. The high pressure will shift eastward across the northern Gulf through Sat night allowing for fresh southerly flow to set up over the western Gulf starting Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level trough that extends from 20N60W to the Caribbean near 18N62W. It continues to the coast of northwest Venezuela along 70W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over some sections of northern Colombia and he northwest part of Venezuela. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough is analyzed along 10N from Colombia along 74W, westward to beyond southern Nicaragua into the tropical Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate convection is over the western part of Central America. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the southern Caribbean west of about 74W. Wave heights are 3-4 ft south of 14N, and lower in the range of 1-2 ft over the remainder of the basin. Moderate to fresh winds are in the eastern one-third of the area, and from 16N southward in the central one- third of the area. Moderate wind speeds are within 160 nm to the north of the coast of Honduras. As for the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across most of the Caribbean during the next several days. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean this afternoon, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Thu, then become stationary on Fri as low pressure develops along the frontal boundary northeast of the NW Bahamas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds with moderate seas will follow the front. The front is forecast to weaken and dissipate over the Caribbean waters during the upcoming weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Topical Waves section for details about wind and wave heights associated to the wave along 42W. A strong cold front extends from near 31N73W to 28N76W and to South Florida. Increasing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is along and east of the front to near 63W and north of 26N. To the east, a surface trough extend from near 31N54W to 26N58W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 24N to 28N between 56W-59W, and from 20N to 24N between 57W-63W. Moderate wind speeds are from 25N northward between 48W and the surface trough. An upper-level trough is along 60W and north of 20N northward, and from 20N60W southwest to the Caribbean Sea to 18N62W and to 11N67W. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 28N33W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is present north of 23N and east of about 46W. Moderate to fresh winds are south of 26N between 20W-30W. Comparatively lower wind speeds are in the areas of the surface anticyclonic wind flow. Wave heights range from 6-8 ft from 17N to 25N between 20W-45W. Wave heights of 9 ft or higher are from 20N to 29N and east of 20W. Lower wave heights of 3-6 ft are over the remainder of the Atlantic. As for the forecast, the aforementioned strong cold front will reach from near 31N70W to west-central Cuba this evening, from near Bermuda to central Cuba early Thu, then become stationary through the weekend. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds ahead of the front will diminish this evening. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds will follow the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the front. Low pressure will form over or near the Bahamas on Fri and lift NW of the area Sat and Sat night. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will allow for northeast winds over the waters north and northwest of the Bahamas to gradually strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds during the weekend. $$ Aguirre